Insights

December 14, 2025 FED LOWERS RATES AGAIN: The Fed lowered its key interest rate by another quarter of a percentage point last week, the third cut this year (all since September). This was largely expected. Two voting members voted against a cut, and one voted for a half percent cut. The Fed mentioned the softening labor market as justification. Fed Chair Powell strongly hinted that it will now be in no rush for future cuts, and it will watch future economic data closely

December 7, 2025 WAITING FOR THE FED: Investors are betting on the Fed lowering rates next week. As a result, stocks remained positive. Hopes of lower rates and lower taxes next year are providing some optimism for a reviving economy. Companies whose earnings are more sensitive to interest rates saw their stock prices rise more last week including airlines, truckers and small-cap companies (the Russell 2000, which tracks smaller company stocks, experienced more than doubl

November 30, 2025 U.S. RETAILS SALES UP: In September, retail sales rose by 0.2% from the prior month, and were 4.3% higher than a year prior. Due to the shutdown, we continue to get stale data, but it is better than no data. This September report indicates a positive, continued growth, but a slow down from the very strong retail sales growth during the summer. Retail sales were up 1.0% in June, and 0.6% in July and August. BLACK FRIDAY SALES UP: According to Adobe Analy

November 16, 2025 SHUTDOWN DRAMA BEGINS TO END FOR NOW: On Wednesday, President Trump signed legislation to reopen the government, ending the 43-day shutdown. The U.S. government has authorization to fund operations until late January. That's right, we could see a repeat in two months, and investors are already wary of that possibility. TOPSY TURVY: On Monday, stocks rose on reports that Congress was closing in on a deal to reopen the government. On Tuesday and Wednesday

November 2, 2025 SHUTDOWN DRAMA GETTING MORE INTENSE: The U.S. government shutdown news is getting a bit louder as the effects manifest. I traveled to Birmingham, Alabama, last week for some meetings, and I was concerned about delays and air traffic controllers working two jobs. We had some minor delays, but nothing serious. But air travel will get worse if the shutdown continues. The food stamp issue is rising to the forefront of the news. None of these issues has been

October 26, 2025 THE SHUTDOWN WEEK FOUR: It is week four, and little sign of a deal. Both sides are blaming the other, trying to score political points, but markets do not seem to be affected so far. (Wait, that's exactly what I said last week.) SEPTEMBER INFLATION REPORT: Despite the shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released September's Consumer Price Index. It was delayed by a bit over a week. The data had already been collected, and some BLS staff member

October 19, 2025 THE SHUTDOWN PART THREE: It is week three, and little sign of a deal. Both sides are blaming the other trying to score political points, but markets do not seem to be affected so far. VOLATILE AND POSITIVE WEEK: Volatility is the word for the week. Yes, stocks ended the week strongly positive, but volatility was the price to get there. There are lots of worries on investors' minds, which generate negative trades on some days. And then there are other da

October 12, 2025 THE SHUTDOWN PART DEUX : It is week two, and there is no end to the shutdown in sight. No one has blinked yet. ...

October 5, 2025 THE SHUTDOWN: The current budget process was created in 1976. It has produced 11 shutdowns. A shutdown occurs when...