Insights

May 24, 2026 HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY AND HAPPY GRADUATION SEASON: All of us will experience Memorial Day this weekend, and many of us will get the opportunity to celebrate a graduation this season. In that spirit, I will share words from a graduation speech last week...good advice for all of us, not just recent grads: "Friendship now requires much more intentionality than it once did. So my advice, as you think about what does and doesn’t deserve your attention, is reach out to

May 17, 2026 THE EXPECTED CPI INCREASE: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released April's consumer price index. The CPI rose 0.6% after increasing 0.9% in March. Energy prices rose sharply once again, up 3.8%. The 12-month CPI number has moved back up to 3.8%. Those are ugly numbers, Energy prices accounted for 40% of the rise. Once the war winds down, it should bring oil prices back in a downward direction, but for now we are all paying higher prices, and the over

May 10, 2026 HEALTHY APRIL JOBS REPORT: According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy added 115,000 net new jobs in April. The government sector shed 8,000 jobs and private sector jobs rose by 123,000. The leading gains were in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail. Manufacturing decreased by 2,000 jobs. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% and are up 3.6% over the last twelve months

May 3, 2026 U.S. GDP INCREASED AT 2.0% ANNUAL RATE IN FIRST QUARTER: The U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), rose by a 2.0% annual rate in the first quarter of 2026. The largest contributor to growth was business investment in equipment and intellectual property. Personal consumption also fueled the positive number. Personal consumption, business fixed investment, and home building combined rose at a 2.5% annualized rate. So, the U.S. is not in rec

April 26, 2026 VOLATILE OIL PRICES EDGE DOWN AGAIN: The Brent Crude Oil spot price ended the week down another $3.00 per barrel. In the last three weeks it has ended at $119, $116, and now $113. It briefly got below $100 last week before rising again. CONSUMERS IN A FOUL MOOD: The University of Michigan has been keeping a survey-driven consumer sentiment index for about fifty years. In March, the index came in at 49.8, dropping from 53.3 the month before. That is the lo

April 19, 2026 OIL PRICES EDGE DOWN: The Brent Crude Oil spot price edged down from last week's closing price of $119 to $116. This is progress, but whether it holds depends on whether there is progress or setbacks in the Middle East this week. STOCK RALLY CONTINUES: Continued news of progress in ending hostilities in the Middle East pushed stocks higher again on Friday, confirming a third straight week of stock gains. Comments by the Iranian Foreign Minister that the St

April 12, 2026 MARCH INFLATION SPIKES DUE TO GAS PRICES: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% in March as gas prices jumped 21.2%. This raised the year-over-year number to 3.3%, up from 2.4% last month. The Fed pays much closer attention to the so-called "core" CPI which excludes energy costs due to its volatility. Core CPI rose 0.2% and the annual number was 2.6%. OIL PRICES MOVED UP, THEN DOWN: The price of oil kept rising last week, and then began to come down, closing

April 5, 2026 GOOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE GOOD FRIDAY: The U.S. had only four days of trading as the markets closed to observe Good Friday heading into the Easter weekend. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed out the month of March with its biggest daily increase all year, rising nearly 3%. It came after the President Trump indicated a more imminent off-ramp to the Iran war. Investors pounced on the news. The rally lasted into Wednesday, and Thursday was mixed, leading to

March 29, 2026 OIL UP AGAIN: The price of oil continues to bounce around in a general upward direction. Last week, the Brent Crude oil price ended at $111, and it settled on Friday at $113, not much higher, but a lot of drama on the way there, causing a lot of fear. FIVE WEEKS OF DECREASES: U.S. stocks continue to take a hit, suffering its fifth week of declines since the Iran war began. The NASDAQ Composite index is down 9.73% year-to-date. The exchange-traded fund that