Insights

May 3, 2026 U.S. GDP INCREASED AT 2.0% ANNUAL RATE IN FIRST QUARTER: The U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), rose by a 2.0% annual rate in the first quarter of 2026. The largest contributor to growth was business investment in equipment and intellectual property. Personal consumption also fueled the positive number. Personal consumption, business fixed investment, and home building combined rose at a 2.5% annualized rate. So, the U.S. is not in rec

April 26, 2026 VOLATILE OIL PRICES EDGE DOWN AGAIN: The Brent Crude Oil spot price ended the week down another $3.00 per barrel. In the last three weeks it has ended at $119, $116, and now $113. It briefly got below $100 last week before rising again. CONSUMERS IN A FOUL MOOD: The University of Michigan has been keeping a survey-driven consumer sentiment index for about fifty years. In March, the index came in at 49.8, dropping from 53.3 the month before. That is the lo

April 19, 2026 OIL PRICES EDGE DOWN: The Brent Crude Oil spot price edged down from last week's closing price of $119 to $116. This is progress, but whether it holds depends on whether there is progress or setbacks in the Middle East this week. STOCK RALLY CONTINUES: Continued news of progress in ending hostilities in the Middle East pushed stocks higher again on Friday, confirming a third straight week of stock gains. Comments by the Iranian Foreign Minister that the St

April 12, 2026 MARCH INFLATION SPIKES DUE TO GAS PRICES: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% in March as gas prices jumped 21.2%. This raised the year-over-year number to 3.3%, up from 2.4% last month. The Fed pays much closer attention to the so-called "core" CPI which excludes energy costs due to its volatility. Core CPI rose 0.2% and the annual number was 2.6%. OIL PRICES MOVED UP, THEN DOWN: The price of oil kept rising last week, and then began to come down, closing

April 5, 2026 GOOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE GOOD FRIDAY: The U.S. had only four days of trading as the markets closed to observe Good Friday heading into the Easter weekend. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed out the month of March with its biggest daily increase all year, rising nearly 3%. It came after the President Trump indicated a more imminent off-ramp to the Iran war. Investors pounced on the news. The rally lasted into Wednesday, and Thursday was mixed, leading to

March 29, 2026 OIL UP AGAIN: The price of oil continues to bounce around in a general upward direction. Last week, the Brent Crude oil price ended at $111, and it settled on Friday at $113, not much higher, but a lot of drama on the way there, causing a lot of fear. FIVE WEEKS OF DECREASES: U.S. stocks continue to take a hit, suffering its fifth week of declines since the Iran war began. The NASDAQ Composite index is down 9.73% year-to-date. The exchange-traded fund that

March 22, 2026 THE WAR: Obviously, economic and market news is dominated by the Iranian war. How and when will it end, and how bad will the oil infrastructure in that part of the world be damaged? When big questions like this have no easy answer, fear leads trading. It is difficult to determine how the war will end. The U.S. seems to want to see a popular revolt that transitions the government to something new and stable and not tryanical and globally disruptive. A mili

March 15, 2026 "Beware the Ides of March." Soothsayer, Julius Caesar , William Shakespeare OIL PRICES RISE: The U.S. is now the world's largest oil producer. And yet, the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy. About 80% of the oil moving through that Strait ends up in Asian countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Thus, despite the U.S.'s status, a disruption in this one narrow waterway affects global oil prices of oil immediatel

March 1, 2026 U.S. EMPLOYMENT DECREASES BY 92,000: The U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs in February. Two factors exacerbated February. One was a severe winter storm, and the other was a nurses' strike that accounted for about 28,000 of the negative jobs numbers. The private sector shed 86,000 jobs. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% (from 4.3%). In January, the U.S. added 126,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings went up by a healthy 0.4% and are up by 3.8% over the past