Insights

March 1, 2026 U.S. EMPLOYMENT DECREASES BY 92,000: The U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs in February. Two factors exacerbated February. One was a severe winter storm, and the other was a nurses' strike that accounted for about 28,000 of the negative jobs numbers. The private sector shed 86,000 jobs. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% (from 4.3%). In January, the U.S. added 126,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings went up by a healthy 0.4% and are up by 3.8% over the past

March 1, 2026 GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS: Last week, I briefly discussed geopolitical events, and the possibility of fighting in the Middle East. As I sit and write this, the information is fairly sparse, but the U.S. has attacked Iran. Events will continue to unfold as the weekend rolls on (I write this on Saturday morning generally), and investors will be figuring out what to do on Monday morning. The short-term effect is often a decrease in market prices as some investors jus

February 22, 2026 TARIFF TURMOILS REDUX: Late in the week, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs. Immediately thereafter, the Trump administration announced new global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 which authorizes the president to address "large and serious" trade imbalances with up to a 15% tariff on imports. The short-term impact of this activity

February 15, 2026 INFLATION RATE DECREASES: In welcome news, the January Consumer Price index came in at 0.2% higher than the previous month, and only 2.4% higher than one year ago. "Core" CPI (which strips out energy and food) rose by 2.5% over the past twelve months. Both CPI and core CPI twelve-month numbers now sit at or near their lowest level since inflation began to rise five years ago. And yet it remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0%. Energy prices i

February 8, 2026 THE ROTATION CONTINUES: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (2.50%) and the Russell 2000 (2.17%) were both solidly positive for the week, but the S&P 500 (see below) and the NASDAQ Composite (-1.84%) ended the week in the red. The blue-chip Dow hit 50,000 for the first time on Friday. Of late, investors have grown wary of the AI stock run and moved money to so-called "real economy" stocks that rely on the entire economy to grow. The Dow is limited to 30 stoc

February 1, 2026 THE FED KEEPS RATES STEADY: The Fed met last week and held rates unchanged. When this happens, economists and investors parse the words of the announcement. The Fed statement said U.S. economic growth was "solid," while in earlier announcements it said "moderate." Inflation "remains somewhat elevated." Unemployment has "shown some signs of stabilization." Two Fed governors voted for a rate cut. The Fed believes that inflation has been affected by tar

January 25, 2026 STOCKS BOUNCE AROUND AS GEOPOLITICAL NEWS DOMINATES: Will the U.S. and Europe have a tariff and trade war? As that theme dominated the news, and as world leaders gave speeches in Davos, stocks sunk, and bounced, and then hovered as nervous investors settled down, and the week ended about where it started. Intel reported a larger-than-expected loss in its fourth quarter of 2025 earnings report, and the stock decreased by 17% (still up over 100% in the past

January 18, 2026 STEADY INFLATION: The inflation rate (CPI) for December rose by 0.3% from a month earlier and held steady at a 2.7% annual rate according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is the same rate as a month earlier. (For 2024, the CPI was 2.9%.) Food at home has decreased to a 2.4% annual rate. Electricity is up 6.7% while gasoline is down -3.4%. "Core" inflation, which strips out food and energy due to their short-term volatility, rose 2.6% in 202

January 11, 2026 MEDIOCRE JOBS REPORT: The U.S. economy added 50,000 net new jobs in December. The average monthly increase for all of 2025 was 49,000 jobs. The monthly average for private sector jobs was 61,000 as government sector jobs declined. Federal government jobs decreased by 268,000 in 2025. The unemployment rate declined to 4.4%. NEW HIGHS TO BEGIN THE YEAR: In the first full week of stock trading for 2026, the S&P 500 hit a new high. The jobs report was m