Insights

November 1, 2026 STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH: In the third quarter of 2026, real gross domestic product grew at an annualized pace of 3.4%. Personal spending remained the key driver, growing at 3.8%. In the past year, personal spending had been averaging a 2.5% growth rate, so this was a bit of a jump. Over the past twenty years, the average quarterly growth reading has been 2.2%. Data center construction was also a big contributor. So-called "core" real GDP, which excludes th

October 25, 2026 MORE VOLATILITY: Investors remain focused on inflation and whether AI companies can maintain strong earnings and profits while spending a lot of money. Will the spending that AI companies need to sustain be too much? Will inflation persist with the Middle East conflict persisting? With all the worries and volatility, stocks ended down. The S&P was down less than half a percent, and the NASDAQ Composite was down by 0.7%. Meta (Facebook) was down 9.4% for

October 18, 2026 NONTRANSITORY INFLATION: If we have discovered anything in the last decade, when a one-time event causes inflation, even if that event is temporary or limited in time or scope, the inflation is never "transitory." It filters through the economy, causing broad effects that linger and persist. The government shutdowns and the government money that followed caused what was then called (by the Fed, no less) 'transitory.' It wasn't. That inflation surge had n

October 11, 2026 A BETTER WEEK: Large U.S. company stocks increased in value last week as the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 all rose for the week. For the moment, concerns about Iran war escalation subsided, which helped. The Russell 2000, an index of smaller company stocks, decreased by 0.9% as concerns of higher borrowing costs impacted investor activity. With all the news going on, it is easy to forget that the S&P 500 is up 2.7% over the last month, and 3.9% over th

October 4, 2026 BOND YIELDS: The yield you can get on a 10-year U.S. Treasury popped up to nearly 5.25%. As you can see below, the Fed rate hikes that led to the bond sell-off in 2022 caused the 10-year to pop up to the range it has been in for the last few years. The current movement came after some relief, and it is causing the recent choppiness in the markets. This new movement is being caused by the recent spate of inflation, the Fed's new upward move on interest rate

September 27, 2026 DESPITE BOND AND OIL WORRIES, STOCKS RISE: Monday and Friday saw stock rallies which kept the weekly number positive despite a three day losing streak in the middle of the week. The rally was not broad. There are 11 sectors in the S&P 500, and only four were positive for the week. Tech took the leadership role again rising 3.5%. The midweek selloff was caused, once again, by bond yields rising (remember, if bond yields rise, bond values are decreasing)

September 20, 2026 THE FED INCREASES INTEREST RATES: The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% increase to its key interest rate, the first rate hike since 2023. The decision was unanimous. The federal funds rate now stands at 3.75%-4.0%. The Fed's statement included the following: "Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2% goal." The Fed also revealed that most of the committee members see at least one more rate

September 13, 2026 NEVER TO BE FORGOTTEN: I wrote this five years ago on the twentieth anniversary of 9/11: Twenty years ago, I was driving north on the New Jersey Turnpike toward Edison, NJ for a financial planning meeting with my client Ray, a utility executive. The meeting was set to begin at 9:00. On the way, I heard a report on the radio about a plane going into the World Trade Center towers. It did not yet sound ominous. I walked to my client's office complex and a

September 6, 2026 STRONG JOBS REPORT: No one was expecting a six-figure jobs gain for August, and yet the U.S. economy added 162,000 net new jobs. This, and some revisions to prior months, make it appear that the job market is strengthening. The fears of an AI-induced labor market disruption have not come to fruition. Growth was broad across categories including construction and manufacturing. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1% because over 600,000 were added to the l