Insights

August 2, 2026 THE U.S. ECONOMY: As measured by gross domestic product (GDP), the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the second quarter. The consensus expectation on Wall Street was 2.0%, so this was a disappointment. U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the first quarter. The key driver for growth was personal consumption which grew at a 3.2% annualized rate. Data center construction grew at a 15.2% rate. Business investment in information pro

July 19, 2026 OIL PRICES BACK ABOVE $100 PER BARREL: With renewed vigor in the Iran war, oil prices have shot back up above $100 per barrel for the first time since June 3. U.S. STOCKS DECLINE: U.S. stocks across the board were negative last week. The S&P 500 registered its second consecutive negative week for the first time since March. With little in the way of economic reports, geopolitical events and their impact on oil prices took center stage as well as a general se

July 19, 2026 CONSUMER PRICES DECREASE IN JUNE: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% in June. This was not surprising as gas prices decreased by 10%. Over the past twelve months, prices are up 3.5% (down from 4.2% last month). The "core" CPI which excludes energy remained unchanged, and the twelve month number is now 2.6%. Compared to a year ago, the CPI is higher (2.7% a year ago). The 2.6% core CPI is lower (2.9% a year ago). The Fed closely monitors the co

July 7, 2026 OIL BACK UP, STOCKS MIXED: The Iran war heated back up, oil prices rose, and stocks struggled. However, U.S. tech and energy stocks rose which carried the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ to a positive week. Hewlett Packard and Meta both rose double digits for the week. South Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix launched what turned out to be a $26.5 billion share sale, the largest ever by a non U.S. company. LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year

July 7, 2026 250 YEARS: The birthday of the United States of America occurred over this weekend. I am old enough to remember the bicentennial. Gerald Ford was president because the elected president and vice president resigned in disgrace. The Democrats were deciding between Jimmy Carter, Frank Church, and Edmund Brown to run against Ford. Israeli commandos were carrying out a daring raid at Entebbe Airport in Uganda, rescuing 105 hostages. The Vietnam war had recently

June 28, 2026 250 YEARS: As we approach our country's 250th birthday, the anniversary of "this bold experiment" and the birth of what became "a republic, if you can keep it" (Benjamin Franklin), I thought I'd share a picture I took in the summer of 2020 when we took advantage of Washington, D.C. with no lines and easy parking. This is the Jefferson Memorial, with an excerpt of the words penned by him, and edited by the rest of the committee (John Adams, Benjamin Franklin, R

June 21, 2026 THE FED MEETS: The Federal Reserve met for the first time under new Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday. Interest rates were not changed, and there were no dissenting votes. However, of the 19 voting officials, nine predicted at least one rate increase by the end of the year. None had done that at the last meeting. Stock prices fell on the news. OIL PRICES DROP, GAS BEGINS TO FOLLOW: With news of an actual U.S./Iran peace deal, oil prices moved down decisively,

June 14, 2026 LARGEST EVER AND RICHEST EVER: On Friday, SpaceX debuted as the largest IPO ever. It priced at $135 as it hit the market, but most retail traders were crowded out as trading was halted for a while before reopening at a higher price. The stock ended the day up 19% to close at about $161. SpaceX is already the sixth largest publicly traded company in the U.S. and Elon Musk is a the world's first trillionaire. IPOs for Anthropic and OpenAI are still on their w

June 7, 2026 A GREAT MONTH FOR JOBS: On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 172,000 net new jobs in May, a lot more than was generally expected. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%. STOCK WINNING STREAK ENDS: The Iran war seemed to take a back seat this past week. Oil prices did not move much, and news from the Middle East was indecisive. So what moved markets to decline? The tech sector took center stage once ag