Insights

November 30, 2025 U.S. RETAILS SALES UP: In September, retail sales rose by 0.2% from the prior month, and were 4.3% higher than a year prior. Due to the shutdown, we continue to get stale data, but it is better than no data. This September report indicates a positive, continued growth, but a slow down from the very strong retail sales growth during the summer. Retail sales were up 1.0% in June, and 0.6% in July and August. BLACK FRIDAY SALES UP: According to Adobe Analy

November 23, 2025 BUBBLE WORRIES: I have been in this business for over a quarter of a century, and I have observed that there is rarely a market that investors trust, and when things are at all positive we get the consistent question, "Is now a good time to put money in the market, or should I wait? We've had (X years) of rising values, so it has to go down soon, right?" Not always, but way more often than not, in my observations, waiting did not work out for people who

November 16, 2025 SHUTDOWN DRAMA BEGINS TO END FOR NOW: On Wednesday, President Trump signed legislation to reopen the government, ending the 43-day shutdown. The U.S. government has authorization to fund operations until late January. That's right, we could see a repeat in two months, and investors are already wary of that possibility. TOPSY TURVY: On Monday, stocks rose on reports that Congress was closing in on a deal to reopen the government. On Tuesday and Wednesday

November 9, 2025 SHUTDOWN DRAMA CONTINUES: Some government benefit programs and airline travel are being affected by the U.S. government shutdown, which will make the noise and anger intensify. Again, market impact has been muted but it is no longer negligible, as it may have been one of the factors leading to this week's pullback (see below). Other effects are beginning to get substantial, and sour citizens often turn into sour investors. 1.4 million federal employees are

November 2, 2025 SHUTDOWN DRAMA GETTING MORE INTENSE: The U.S. government shutdown news is getting a bit louder as the effects manifest. I traveled to Birmingham, Alabama, last week for some meetings, and I was concerned about delays and air traffic controllers working two jobs. We had some minor delays, but nothing serious. But air travel will get worse if the shutdown continues. The food stamp issue is rising to the forefront of the news. None of these issues has been

October 26, 2025 THE SHUTDOWN WEEK FOUR: It is week four, and little sign of a deal. Both sides are blaming the other, trying to score political points, but markets do not seem to be affected so far. (Wait, that's exactly what I said last week.) SEPTEMBER INFLATION REPORT: Despite the shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released September's Consumer Price Index. It was delayed by a bit over a week. The data had already been collected, and some BLS staff member

October 19, 2025 THE SHUTDOWN PART THREE: It is week three, and little sign of a deal. Both sides are blaming the other trying to score political points, but markets do not seem to be affected so far. VOLATILE AND POSITIVE WEEK: Volatility is the word for the week. Yes, stocks ended the week strongly positive, but volatility was the price to get there. There are lots of worries on investors' minds, which generate negative trades on some days. And then there are other da

October 12, 2025 THE SHUTDOWN PART DEUX : It is week two, and there is no end to the shutdown in sight. No one has blinked yet. ...

October 5, 2025 THE SHUTDOWN: The current budget process was created in 1976. It has produced 11 shutdowns. A shutdown occurs when...