Insights

January 18, 2026 STEADY INFLATION: The inflation rate (CPI) for December rose by 0.3% from a month earlier and held steady at a 2.7% annual rate according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is the same rate as a month earlier. (For 2024, the CPI was 2.9%.) Food at home has decreased to a 2.4% annual rate. Electricity is up 6.7% while gasoline is down -3.4%. "Core" inflation, which strips out food and energy due to their short-term volatility, rose 2.6% in 202

January 11, 2026 MEDIOCRE JOBS REPORT: The U.S. economy added 50,000 net new jobs in December. The average monthly increase for all of 2025 was 49,000 jobs. The monthly average for private sector jobs was 61,000 as government sector jobs declined. Federal government jobs decreased by 268,000 in 2025. The unemployment rate declined to 4.4%. NEW HIGHS TO BEGIN THE YEAR: In the first full week of stock trading for 2026, the S&P 500 hit a new high. The jobs report was m

January 4, 2026 2025 TURNED OUT TO BE A SOLID YEAR FOR STOCKS, BONDS, AND MORE: Stocks ended the year near record highs. The S&P 500 just had its third best three-year run ever. Most thought that streak was coming to a screeching halt back in April. But that dip turned back into a bull market within weeks. Tech continued to be a big driver of the gains with Nvidia up 40%, Broadcom up 51%, Alphabet up 66%, Advanced Micro Devices up 78%, and Palantir up a whopping 139% for

December 28, 2025 SOLID ECONOMIC GROWTH REPORTED FOR THIRD QUARTER: Due to the government shutdown, the third quarter gross domestic product report by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis was delayed until last week. The report showed an annualized growth rate of 4.3%. The biggest driver of growth was consumer spending, which remained robust. Consumers were spending more on healthcare, international travel, legal services, personal computers, and software. This puts the

December 21, 2025 NEW CPI DATA: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employees were furloughed during October, but we finally got an updated CPI number. These numbers were encouraging, but due to the anomalies with data collection due to the government shutdown, we probably need to see confirmation in the next couple of months. The November Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% for the two months ending in November. The twelve-month number came in at 2.7%, which was much lower th

December 14, 2025 FED LOWERS RATES AGAIN: The Fed lowered its key interest rate by another quarter of a percentage point last week, the third cut this year (all since September). This was largely expected. Two voting members voted against a cut, and one voted for a half percent cut. The Fed mentioned the softening labor market as justification. Fed Chair Powell strongly hinted that it will now be in no rush for future cuts, and it will watch future economic data closely

December 7, 2025 WAITING FOR THE FED: Investors are betting on the Fed lowering rates next week. As a result, stocks remained positive. Hopes of lower rates and lower taxes next year are providing some optimism for a reviving economy. Companies whose earnings are more sensitive to interest rates saw their stock prices rise more last week including airlines, truckers and small-cap companies (the Russell 2000, which tracks smaller company stocks, experienced more than doubl

November 30, 2025 U.S. RETAILS SALES UP: In September, retail sales rose by 0.2% from the prior month, and were 4.3% higher than a year prior. Due to the shutdown, we continue to get stale data, but it is better than no data. This September report indicates a positive, continued growth, but a slow down from the very strong retail sales growth during the summer. Retail sales were up 1.0% in June, and 0.6% in July and August. BLACK FRIDAY SALES UP: According to Adobe Analy

November 23, 2025 BUBBLE WORRIES: I have been in this business for over a quarter of a century, and I have observed that there is rarely a market that investors trust, and when things are at all positive we get the consistent question, "Is now a good time to put money in the market, or should I wait? We've had (X years) of rising values, so it has to go down soon, right?" Not always, but way more often than not, in my observations, waiting did not work out for people who