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Markets Rise, Oil Prices Rise, Data Mixed, Purpose

  • Writer: Doug MacGray
    Doug MacGray
  • 2 days ago
  • 5 min read

April 5, 2026


GOOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE GOOD FRIDAY: The U.S. had only four days of trading as the markets closed to observe Good Friday heading into the Easter weekend. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed out the month of March with its biggest daily increase all year, rising nearly 3%. It came after the President Trump indicated a more imminent off-ramp to the Iran war. Investors pounced on the news. The rally lasted into Wednesday, and Thursday was mixed, leading to a positive week overall. The S&P 500 is currently about 6% down from its most recent high. As you can see below, overall economic news remains mixed giving both bulls and bears news on which to hang their hat.



LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.



OIL UP AGAIN: The stock market shrugged of yet another week of rising oil prices.



FEELING THE OIL PAIN: Having gas prices rise quickly as they have here in the U.S. is not good for the economy or for individual consumers. Gas prices in the U.S. have gone up by about 32%. Our pain pales in comparison to what is happening elsewhere. Roughly 80% of Asia's oil imports come from the Strait of Hormuz. Vietnam has fewer than three weeks of reserves. The European Central Bank has postponed further rate cuts. Germany, the UK, and Italy face the biggest recession danger due to oil price rises. Gas prices in Europe are up by nearly 70%, and are now averaging around $8.00 a gallon.


FEBRUARY RETAIL SALES UP: In February, U.S. retail sales rose by 0.6% from the prior month, the best showing since last summer. Much of this rise can be attributed to a snap back in spending after rough winter weather slowed things down. Overall retail sales are up 3.7% in the last year, but in the last six months, sales up up 1.8% annualized. If you inflation-adjust these numbers, "real" retail sales are up 1.3% in the past year, and down -0.7% annualized in the past six months.


A GOOD JOBS REPORT: The U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in March according to the U.S. Labor Department. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%. The manufacturing sector added 15,000 jobs, and construction added 26,000. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% and are up 3.5% for the past year.


U.S. MANUFACTURING BACK IN GROWTH MODE: For the third month in a row, U.S. manufacturing expanded according to the ISM Manufacturing PMI. It rose to 52.7 (anything over 50 on the index indicates growth). This is the highest reading in almost four years.


AFRICAN BANKING: For the first time, African banks have topped $100 billion in annual revenue. Globally, banks average about 10% return on equity. In the past two years, African banks have averaged 19% and 17%. 70% of this revenue comes from Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa. In a continent with a growing population, banks are seeing growing financial inclusion and rapid adoption of digital banking services. Small and medium sized businesses are expected to be the fastest growing customer segment in the near future.


REMEMBRANCE: Back in October, my wife and I took a trip to Europe, spending time in the Alsace region of France. One town we were in was Colmar. While walking through, we walked past a church that had this marker on it. No one was stopping to look or notice the names, but for some reason I did. I decided to take a picture and include it in MacGray Matter some week. These were members of the French resistance to Nazi Germany from that town who died during the war. They deserve to be remembered. "Greater love has no one than this: that he lay down his life for his friends."



GET SERIOUS ABOUT YOUR PURPOSE: During this week that is quite serious for practitioners of the Christian faith (Good Friday and Easter), and the Jewish faith (Passover) I reviewed an article someone had passed on to me with the interesting title, "Get Serious: About Purpose." The subtitle was even more intriguing: "We have become a treatment-resistant Prozac Nation. But the practice of believing in something--anything--can pull us out." It is written by, of all people, a venture capitalist. She cited the Wall Street Journal/NORC poll which showed that the importance of faith, family and the flag have all eroded in significance in the past 25 years. The only value that has increased in recent years is money. What is the void in purpose being filled with? "Increasingly, the void is being filled with...you. A relentless focus on the self that tells us you are enough." (emphasis in original). She said that in her field of venture capitalism, she and her fellow venture investors seek entrepreneurs with a sense of calling and purpose: "But if you talk to the most storied investors about what they're searching for....They're testing for how deeply--how obsessively--someone believes in something greater than themselves." Ultimately, she concludes the article (which I commend to your reading, click here) with "Find a purpose outside yourself. You are not enough." What a holy thought for holy week.


Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honour God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.



Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545




"Frequently the more trifling the subject, the more animated and protracted the discussion." Franklin Pierce


"No one should seek their own good, but the good of others." I Corinthians 10:24 (NIV)


*In commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the United States, I am finding a quote from a president each week, in order. This is the 14th week, and Franklin Pierce was our 14th president.


SOURCES:

FEELING THE OIL PAIN: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/iran-war-fallout-lands-hardest-europes-most-gasdependent-nations-2026-03-19/ AND https://report.az/en/amp/other-countries/gasoline-prices-in-germany-reach-four-year-high

AFRICAN BANKING: "African Banking Story of 'Performance,'" Wilmington News Journal, April 3 2024.

(c) 2026 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved


Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

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