Insights

April 19, 2026 OIL PRICES EDGE DOWN: The Brent Crude Oil spot price edged down from last week's closing price of $119 to $116. This is progress, but whether it holds depends on whether there is progress or setbacks in the Middle East this week. STOCK RALLY CONTINUES: Continued news of progress in ending hostilities in the Middle East pushed stocks higher again on Friday, confirming a third straight week of stock gains. Comments by the Iranian Foreign Minister that the St

April 12, 2026 MARCH INFLATION SPIKES DUE TO GAS PRICES: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% in March as gas prices jumped 21.2%. This raised the year-over-year number to 3.3%, up from 2.4% last month. The Fed pays much closer attention to the so-called "core" CPI which excludes energy costs due to its volatility. Core CPI rose 0.2% and the annual number was 2.6%. OIL PRICES MOVED UP, THEN DOWN: The price of oil kept rising last week, and then began to come down, closing

April 5, 2026 GOOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE GOOD FRIDAY: The U.S. had only four days of trading as the markets closed to observe Good Friday heading into the Easter weekend. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed out the month of March with its biggest daily increase all year, rising nearly 3%. It came after the President Trump indicated a more imminent off-ramp to the Iran war. Investors pounced on the news. The rally lasted into Wednesday, and Thursday was mixed, leading to

March 22, 2026 THE WAR: Obviously, economic and market news is dominated by the Iranian war. How and when will it end, and how bad will the oil infrastructure in that part of the world be damaged? When big questions like this have no easy answer, fear leads trading. It is difficult to determine how the war will end. The U.S. seems to want to see a popular revolt that transitions the government to something new and stable and not tryanical and globally disruptive. A mili

March 15, 2026 "Beware the Ides of March."  Soothsayer, Julius Caesar , William Shakespeare OIL PRICES RISE: The U.S. is now the world's largest oil producer. And yet, the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy. About 80% of the oil moving through that Strait ends up in Asian countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Thus, despite the U.S.'s status, a disruption in this one narrow waterway affects global oil prices of oil immediatel

March 1, 2026 GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS: Last week, I briefly discussed geopolitical events, and the possibility of fighting in the Middle East. As I sit and write this, the information is fairly sparse, but the U.S. has attacked Iran. Events will continue to unfold as the weekend rolls on (I write this on Saturday morning generally), and investors will be figuring out what to do on Monday morning. The short-term effect is often a decrease in market prices as some investors jus

February 22, 2026 TARIFF TURMOILS REDUX: Late in the week, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs. Immediately thereafter, the Trump administration announced new global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 which authorizes the president to address "large and serious" trade imbalances with up to a 15% tariff on imports. The short-term impact of this activity

February 15, 2026 INFLATION RATE DECREASES: In welcome news, the January Consumer Price index came in at 0.2% higher than the previous month, and only 2.4% higher than one year ago. "Core" CPI (which strips out energy and food) rose by 2.5% over the past twelve months. Both CPI and core CPI twelve-month numbers now sit at or near their lowest level since inflation began to rise five years ago. And yet it remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0%. Energy prices i

February 8, 2026 THE ROTATION CONTINUES: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (2.50%) and the Russell 2000 (2.17%) were both solidly positive for the week, but the S&P 500 (see below) and the NASDAQ Composite (-1.84%) ended the week in the red. The blue-chip Dow hit 50,000 for the first time on Friday. Of late, investors have grown wary of the AI stock run and moved money to so-called "real economy" stocks that rely on the entire economy to grow. The Dow is limited to 30 stoc