Insights

September 6, 2026 STRONG JOBS REPORT: No one was expecting a six-figure jobs gain for August, and yet the U.S. economy added 162,000 net new jobs. This, and some revisions to prior months, make it appear that the job market is strengthening. The fears of an AI-induced labor market disruption have not come to fruition. Growth was broad across categories including construction and manufacturing. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1% because over 600,000 were added to the l

August 30, 2026 STOCKS RISE A LITTLE: All eyes were on Nvidia mid-week as the tech giant reported its earnings. Would they disappoint? They did not. Nvidia reported not only strong earnings, but expected revenue growth of 70% in the company's next fiscal year. Salesforce stock rose 23% on Thursday after the software company reported its second quarter earnings. Its earnings per share rose 103% year-over-year. The upward momentum for stocks were slowed when Federal Reser

August 16, 2026 U.S. RETAIL SALES DOWN IN JULY: U.S. retail sales decreased by 0.6% in July, the worst monthly number in a year. Declines in auto sales and non-store retailers dragged the reading down. Amazon moved its Prime Day sales event to June this year, which impacted the non-store retail number (down 2.2%). The first half of the year has been strong, and so we will watch future months to see if this is a blip or a trend. (Did the end of the World Cup have an impac

August 9, 2026 A DECLINE IN JOBS: In July, jobs in the U.S. declined by 23,000. There was an unusual drop of 50,000 government education workers in July. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, but that was because over 260,000 people dropped out of the labor force, which is never a positive sign. Strict immigration enforcement and our aging population is going to slow growth without raising the unemployment rate, and July was a perfect example of that. Private payrolls

August 2, 2026 THE U.S. ECONOMY: As measured by gross domestic product (GDP), the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the second quarter. The consensus expectation on Wall Street was 2.0%, so this was a disappointment. U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the first quarter. The key driver for growth was personal consumption which grew at a 3.2% annualized rate. Data center construction grew at a 15.2% rate. Business investment in information pro

July 19, 2026 OIL PRICES BACK ABOVE $100 PER BARREL: With renewed vigor in the Iran war, oil prices have shot back up above $100 per barrel for the first time since June 3. U.S. STOCKS DECLINE: U.S. stocks across the board were negative last week. The S&P 500 registered its second consecutive negative week for the first time since March. With little in the way of economic reports, geopolitical events and their impact on oil prices took center stage as well as a general se

July 19, 2026 CONSUMER PRICES DECREASE IN JUNE: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% in June. This was not surprising as gas prices decreased by 10%. Over the past twelve months, prices are up 3.5% (down from 4.2% last month). The "core" CPI which excludes energy remained unchanged, and the twelve month number is now 2.6%. Compared to a year ago, the CPI is higher (2.7% a year ago). The 2.6% core CPI is lower (2.9% a year ago). The Fed closely monitors the co

July 7, 2026 OIL BACK UP, STOCKS MIXED: The Iran war heated back up, oil prices rose, and stocks struggled. However, U.S. tech and energy stocks rose which carried the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ to a positive week. Hewlett Packard and Meta both rose double digits for the week. South Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix launched what turned out to be a $26.5 billion share sale, the largest ever by a non U.S. company. LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year

July 7, 2026 250 YEARS: The birthday of the United States of America occurred over this weekend. I am old enough to remember the bicentennial. Gerald Ford was president because the elected president and vice president resigned in disgrace. The Democrats were deciding between Jimmy Carter, Frank Church, and Edmund Brown to run against Ford. Israeli commandos were carrying out a daring raid at Entebbe Airport in Uganda, rescuing 105 hostages. The Vietnam war had recently