Insights

March 1, 2026 GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS: Last week, I briefly discussed geopolitical events, and the possibility of fighting in the Middle East. As I sit and write this, the information is fairly sparse, but the U.S. has attacked Iran. Events will continue to unfold as the weekend rolls on (I write this on Saturday morning generally), and investors will be figuring out what to do on Monday morning. The short-term effect is often a decrease in market prices as some investors jus

February 22, 2026 TARIFF TURMOILS REDUX: Late in the week, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs. Immediately thereafter, the Trump administration announced new global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 which authorizes the president to address "large and serious" trade imbalances with up to a 15% tariff on imports. The short-term impact of this activity

February 15, 2026 INFLATION RATE DECREASES: In welcome news, the January Consumer Price index came in at 0.2% higher than the previous month, and only 2.4% higher than one year ago. "Core" CPI (which strips out energy and food) rose by 2.5% over the past twelve months. Both CPI and core CPI twelve-month numbers now sit at or near their lowest level since inflation began to rise five years ago. And yet it remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0%. Energy prices i

February 8, 2026 THE ROTATION CONTINUES: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (2.50%) and the Russell 2000 (2.17%) were both solidly positive for the week, but the S&P 500 (see below) and the NASDAQ Composite (-1.84%) ended the week in the red. The blue-chip Dow hit 50,000 for the first time on Friday. Of late, investors have grown wary of the AI stock run and moved money to so-called "real economy" stocks that rely on the entire economy to grow. The Dow is limited to 30 stoc

February 1, 2026 THE FED KEEPS RATES STEADY: The Fed met last week and held rates unchanged. When this happens, economists and investors parse the words of the announcement. The Fed statement said U.S. economic growth was "solid," while in earlier announcements it said "moderate." Inflation "remains somewhat elevated." Unemployment has "shown some signs of stabilization." Two Fed governors voted for a rate cut. The Fed believes that inflation has been affected by tar

January 25, 2026 STOCKS BOUNCE AROUND AS GEOPOLITICAL NEWS DOMINATES: Will the U.S. and Europe have a tariff and trade war? As that theme dominated the news, and as world leaders gave speeches in Davos, stocks sunk, and bounced, and then hovered as nervous investors settled down, and the week ended about where it started. Intel reported a larger-than-expected loss in its fourth quarter of 2025 earnings report, and the stock decreased by 17% (still up over 100% in the past

January 4, 2026 2025 TURNED OUT TO BE A SOLID YEAR FOR STOCKS, BONDS, AND MORE: Stocks ended the year near record highs. The S&P 500 just had its third best three-year run ever. Most thought that streak was coming to a screeching halt back in April. But that dip turned back into a bull market within weeks. Tech continued to be a big driver of the gains with Nvidia up 40%, Broadcom up 51%, Alphabet up 66%, Advanced Micro Devices up 78%, and Palantir up a whopping 139% for

December 28, 2025 SOLID ECONOMIC GROWTH REPORTED FOR THIRD QUARTER: Due to the government shutdown, the third quarter gross domestic product report by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis was delayed until last week. The report showed an annualized growth rate of 4.3%. The biggest driver of growth was consumer spending, which remained robust. Consumers were spending more on healthcare, international travel, legal services, personal computers, and software. This puts the

December 21, 2025 NEW CPI DATA: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employees were furloughed during October, but we finally got an updated CPI number. These numbers were encouraging, but due to the anomalies with data collection due to the government shutdown, we probably need to see confirmation in the next couple of months. The November Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% for the two months ending in November. The twelve-month number came in at 2.7%, which was much lower th