Insights

January 4, 2026 2025 TURNED OUT TO BE A SOLID YEAR FOR STOCKS, BONDS, AND MORE: Stocks ended the year near record highs. The S&P 500 just had its third best three-year run ever. Most thought that streak was coming to a screeching halt back in April. But that dip turned back into a bull market within weeks. Tech continued to be a big driver of the gains with Nvidia up 40%, Broadcom up 51%, Alphabet up 66%, Advanced Micro Devices up 78%, and Palantir up a whopping 139% for

December 28, 2025 SOLID ECONOMIC GROWTH REPORTED FOR THIRD QUARTER: Due to the government shutdown, the third quarter gross domestic product report by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis was delayed until last week. The report showed an annualized growth rate of 4.3%. The biggest driver of growth was consumer spending, which remained robust. Consumers were spending more on healthcare, international travel, legal services, personal computers, and software. This puts the

December 21, 2025 NEW CPI DATA: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employees were furloughed during October, but we finally got an updated CPI number. These numbers were encouraging, but due to the anomalies with data collection due to the government shutdown, we probably need to see confirmation in the next couple of months. The November Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% for the two months ending in November. The twelve-month number came in at 2.7%, which was much lower th

December 14, 2025 FED LOWERS RATES AGAIN: The Fed lowered its key interest rate by another quarter of a percentage point last week, the third cut this year (all since September). This was largely expected. Two voting members voted against a cut, and one voted for a half percent cut. The Fed mentioned the softening labor market as justification. Fed Chair Powell strongly hinted that it will now be in no rush for future cuts, and it will watch future economic data closely

December 7, 2025 WAITING FOR THE FED: Investors are betting on the Fed lowering rates next week. As a result, stocks remained positive. Hopes of lower rates and lower taxes next year are providing some optimism for a reviving economy. Companies whose earnings are more sensitive to interest rates saw their stock prices rise more last week including airlines, truckers and small-cap companies (the Russell 2000, which tracks smaller company stocks, experienced more than doubl

November 30, 2025 U.S. RETAILS SALES UP: In September, retail sales rose by 0.2% from the prior month, and were 4.3% higher than a year prior. Due to the shutdown, we continue to get stale data, but it is better than no data. This September report indicates a positive, continued growth, but a slow down from the very strong retail sales growth during the summer. Retail sales were up 1.0% in June, and 0.6% in July and August. BLACK FRIDAY SALES UP: According to Adobe Analy

November 16, 2025 SHUTDOWN DRAMA BEGINS TO END FOR NOW: On Wednesday, President Trump signed legislation to reopen the government, ending the 43-day shutdown. The U.S. government has authorization to fund operations until late January. That's right, we could see a repeat in two months, and investors are already wary of that possibility. TOPSY TURVY: On Monday, stocks rose on reports that Congress was closing in on a deal to reopen the government. On Tuesday and Wednesday

November 2, 2025 SHUTDOWN DRAMA GETTING MORE INTENSE: The U.S. government shutdown news is getting a bit louder as the effects manifest. I traveled to Birmingham, Alabama, last week for some meetings, and I was concerned about delays and air traffic controllers working two jobs. We had some minor delays, but nothing serious. But air travel will get worse if the shutdown continues. The food stamp issue is rising to the forefront of the news. None of these issues has been

October 26, 2025 THE SHUTDOWN WEEK FOUR: It is week four, and little sign of a deal. Both sides are blaming the other, trying to score political points, but markets do not seem to be affected so far. (Wait, that's exactly what I said last week.) SEPTEMBER INFLATION REPORT: Despite the shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released September's Consumer Price Index. It was delayed by a bit over a week. The data had already been collected, and some BLS staff member