New Fed Chair, Iran Deal?, and OBX

June 21, 2026 THE FED MEETS: The Federal Reserve met for the first time under new Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday. Interest rates were not changed, and there were no dissenting votes. However, of the 19 voting officials, nine predicted at least one rate increase by the end of the year. None had done that at the last meeting. Stock prices fell on the news.

OIL PRICES DROP, GAS BEGINS TO FOLLOW: With news of an actual U.S./Iran peace deal, oil prices moved down decisively, and gasoline prices began to follow suit. The Brent Crude Oil spot price closed in near $80 per barrel toward the end of the week.

FALLING OIL PRICES AND SPACEX KEEP STOCKS IN THE BLACK: The holiday-shortened week ended positively on Thursday with news of a peace deal and lowering oil prices. The tech sector liked the news even more, with the NASDAQ composite climbing 2.43% for the week. The EEM Index (emerging markets) rose 4.29%. Stocks declined on Wednesday before the news of the peace deal because investors did not like remarks coming from the Fed (under new leadership), indicating that it is open to taking action if necessary to move inflation closer to its 2% target.

LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.

U.S. RETAIL SPENDING UP IN MAY: Retail sales rose 0.9% in May. A significant portion of the jump was consumers simply spending more money on gasoline, but even if you stripped out gasoline, consumer spending still rose by 0.7%. If you factor inflation into the picture, sales are up 2.6% for the past year. Spending at restaurants and bars decreased slightly, indicating a cut in consumer discretionary spending.

SALES OF EXISTING HOMES JUMP, BUT HOUSING STARTS SLUMP: In May, sales of existing homes in the U.S. jumped by 3.2%. Mortgage rates came down a little, and inventory of homes increased, showing that buyers are ready to buy if affordability and supply improve. Meanwhile, housing starts decreased sharply, down 15.4% in May. Much of the decrease was a drop in starts for multi-family homes. Builders are facing the challenge of trying to build homes that consumers will be able to afford. If that does not improve, builders will continue to be cautious.

OUR WEEK AT OBX: This was our annual family vacation at the beach. We stayed at a familiar rental in Southern Shores with sixteen in all. It was crazy at times, but always fun. It is a challenge to get all six grandkids to stand for a picture, especially the youngest. The weather, as usual here, was mostly great.

Have a great week!

Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.

Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545

dmacgray@stonecropadvisors.com

"The path of progress is seldom smooth. New things are often found hard to do. Our fathers found them so. We find them so. But are we not made better for the effort and sacrifice?" William McKinley*

"Then some soldiers asked him, 'And what should we do?' He replied, 'Don’t extort money and don’t accuse people falsely—be content with your pay.'." Luke 3:14 (NIV)

*In commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the United States, I am finding a quote from a president each week, in order. This is the 25th week, and William McKinley was our 25th president.

SOURCES:

THE FED MEETS: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-bd700510?mod=Searchresults&pos=2&page=1

OIL PRICES DROP, GAS BEGINS TO FOLLOW: YCharts.com

U.S. RETAIL SPENDING UP IN MAY: https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/blogs/economics/index.aspx

SALES OF EXISTING SALES JUMP, BUT HOUSING STARTS SLUMP: https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/may-home-sales-notched-their-biggest-rise-this-year-bd192cf1?mod=economy_feat4_housing_pos5 AND https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/u-s-housing-starts-fell-sharply-in-may-c67f7963?mod=economy_feat4_housing_pos3

(c) 2026 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved

Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.