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Mixed Economic Data, Helping the Yen, Oh Mom!

  • Writer: Doug MacGray
    Doug MacGray
  • 6 days ago
  • 4 min read

August 16, 2026


U.S. RETAIL SALES DOWN IN JULY: U.S. retail sales decreased by 0.6% in July, the worst monthly number in a year. Declines in auto sales and non-store retailers dragged the reading down. Amazon moved its Prime Day sales event to June this year, which impacted the non-store retail number (down 2.2%). The first half of the year has been strong, and so we will watch future months to see if this is a blip or a trend. (Did the end of the World Cup have an impact?) U.S. markets declined on the news.


CONSUMER PRICES INCH UP: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% in July following a 0.4% decline in June. Energy prices fell 1.5% for the month (but still 14.7% higher than a year ago). The CPI is up 3.4% year-over-year. The Fed watches "core" CPI, which excludes food and energy prices due to their short-term volatility. The Core CPI rose 0.2% and is up 2.5% year-over-year. CPI is higher than it was a year ago, but Core CPI is less than it was a year ago. As this data might help the Fed decide to avoid a rate increase, investors generally reacted positively to this report.


U.S. WHOLESALE PRICES FLAT: U.S. wholesale prices, as measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI), were flat in July, a pleasant surprise. Prices of goods fell 0.7% while prices of services rose 0.2%. More than half the drop in goods prices was the result of gas prices being down 5.7%.


BUMPY RIDE TO A SMALL GAIN: The S&P 500 eked out another positive week on its way to another record high close. Despite the modest gain, nearly every sector (10 out of 12) was up, with energy stocks leading the way up 7.7%. Economic data was mixed with the CPI meeting expectations, PPI better than expectations, and retail sales lower than expectations. Corporate earnings continued to be the key buoy to markets. 436 of the S&P 500 companies have reported second-quarter earnings. 85% have exceeded expectations, and the historical average is 67%. Expected S&P 500 earnings for the year have now moved up to 33% (the ten-year average is 9%).



LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.



SAVING THE YEN: At the direction of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the U.S. recently sold some euro reserves and purchased yen as Japan's currency was weakening. The yen recently fell to its weakest level versus the U.S. dollar in almost forty years. This is the first time the U.S. has purchased Japanese yen since the late 1990s. One reason, and arguably the primary reason, the U.S. took this action is because Japan holds more than $1 trillion in U.S. government debt. If Japan had to sell U.S. debt, it could push U.S. Treasury yields higher. The U.S. currently finances its debt with very low interest rate debt. If those rates climb, the U.S government will struggle to pay for its current level of debt.


A NEW BOOK: I have a good friend of many years who is a local pastor. He and his wife lost their youngest son in a car accident at the age of 16 back in 1993. Many years later, he has finally written about it. It is obviously a book written from a Christian perspective, but it is a very authentically written book by a man who has had to go through an adult lifetime of pain due to that traumatic event. He sure doesn't sugarcoat anything. Bravo to Chuck for turning his pain into something positive. Having lost my brother when he was 16, I have always felt a bit of a connection with Chuck. (Note: Chuck sent me an advance copy and asked me to write a short reaction to it. I did, thinking they might put my comment on social media. They put my comment right in the book!)


TYPICAL MOM: Below is a screenshot of a text my 91-year-old mom sent me this past week. It is an encouraging thing to get a text like this from a parent, even if it is over the top- typical mom stuff like this one. At the age of 91, my mom still has at least one purpose: to encourage her children, and she is doing it well.



No wisecracks about the handsome thing!


Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.



Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545



"It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit." Harry S Truman*


"Anyone who does not provide for their relatives, and especially for their own household, has denied the faith an dis worse than an unbeliever." I Timothy 5:8 (NIV)


*In commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the United States, I am finding a quote from a president each week, in order. This is the 33rd week, and Harry S Truman was our 33rd president.


SOURCES:


(c) 2026 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved

Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

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