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Bond Yields, Oil, Global Growth and DJ EZ Rock

Writer: Doug MacGray
Doug MacGray
6 days ago
5 min read

September 27, 2026


DESPITE BOND AND OIL WORRIES, STOCKS RISE: Monday and Friday saw stock rallies which kept the weekly number positive despite a three day losing streak in the middle of the week. The rally was not broad. There are 11 sectors in the S&P 500, and only four were positive for the week. Tech took the leadership role again rising 3.5%. The midweek selloff was caused, once again, by bond yields rising (remember, if bond yields rise, bond values are decreasing) and oil prices rising. The yield on the 10-year benchmark rose to 5.228% this week, and pulled back on Friday to 5.18%. Two-year and thirty-year benchmarks followed a similar pattern. Stronger bond yields tend to put pressure on stock prices, but this year, stock markets have held up due to strong earnings growth and solid economic data. Despite ending the week positive, it is the choppiness that investors are focused on right now, and as long as oil prices, interest rates, and bond yields remain elevated or rise further, stock markets will struggle to stay positive.



LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.



OIL AND YIELDS: Next week investors will be watching oil prices and bond yields once again. Investors will likely get spooked if there is another oil surge that leads to worries about inflation pressure. A further yield rise would make long-duration corporate growth appear harder to finance. Markets struggled with these issues last week, and they will likely be front and center this coming week.


NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES INCREASED IN AUGUST: Sales of new, single-family homes increased 6.4% in August. Sales of existing homes struggle because you have to find sellers willing to give up their cheap mortgages. Single-family homes do not face the same challenge. Financing costs have risen, with the average 30-year mortgage up by about 1% since the beginning of the year. Interest rate relief does not appear to be on the horizon. Median sales prices for new single-family homes are down 14.5% since October 2022, while the size of these homes is trending larger (up 2.5% from 2022 to 2026). Supply has put more downward pressure on new homes.


GLOBAL GROWTH SURPRISES TO THE UPSIDE: A report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) indicates that global economic growth is rising faster than earlier projections. The OECD increased its yearly forecast of global growth to 2.9% from 2.8%. "We are facing a prolonged disruption, and yet the economy has performed better," said the OECD's chief economist. The report predicted U.S. inflation will cool to 2.5% next year and that the Fed will increase rates one more time before year-end.

NEW ORDERS FOR BUSINESS EQUIPMENT ROSE IN AUGUST: New orders for nondefense capital goods rose 1.6% in August. This follows a 0.6% rise in July and a 1.7% rise in June.


DURABLE GOODS ORDERS FLAT IN AUGUST: New orders for durable goods in August remained virtually unchanged from the prior month. The transportation sector decreased by 0.6%, but everything else was up by 0.3%. In general, durable goods orders continue a positive recent trend. They had been flat for a while after the fast rise that occurred after the government shutdowns (see below).



KEEP IT SIMPLE: I travel a good bit, and one thing I have noticed in the last decade or so is that showers have become so complex and diverse that I feel like I need to pull up a "how to" YouTube video just to figure out how to make them work. This weekend we traveled down south for client visits, and we stayed in two hotels in Southport, NC, and Charleston, SC. I am happy to report that both had showers that looked like this: simple. I hope it's a trend.



By the way, the flight down here was about as turbulent a flight as I can ever remember.


NOT IN A CHRISTMAS MOOD: In Charleston, we walked through the City Market, a favorite of Deb's, and I browsed through a Christmas shop. While looking at some ornaments, I listened to the music they were playing, and I decided to pull up the Shazam app and identify the song and the artist. Below is what I got. It did not put me in the Christmas spirit.



I hope all of you with homes on or near the coast are okay.


Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.



Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545




"Go out on a limb. That's where the fruit is.” Jimmy Carter*


"Go to the ant, you sluggard, consider its ways and be wise! It has no commander, no overseer or ruler, yet it stores its provisions in summer and gathers its food at harvest." Proverbs 6:6-8 (NIV)


*In commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the United States, I am finding a quote from a president each week, in order. This is the 39th week, and Jimmy Carter was our 39th president.


SOURCES:

DESPITE BOND AND OIL WORRIES, STOCKS RISE: https://myweeklystock.substack.com/p/weekly-market-recap-sep-21-25 AND https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stocks-rise-to-cap-week-of-increasing-yields-volatile-oil-prices

NEW ORDERS FOR BUSINESS EQUIPMENT ROSE IN AUGUST: https://kelo.com/2026/09/25/us-core-capital-goods-orders-surge-in-august/


© 2026 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved


*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.


Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


The information contained herein has been compiled from third party sources (see above) and is believed to be reliable, however its accuracy is not guaranteed. This newsletter is not an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell securities, and you should not construe it as investment, tax, or legal advice, or a specific investment recommendation. Any opinion included in this newsletter is our judgment as of the date of this report and is subject to change without notice.


If you want any additional information regarding Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, including management fees and expenses, you can contact us directly, or review our Form ADV Part 2 which can be found here (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov), or which we will be happy to provide to you upon request. Only God knows the future, and so while past performance can be helpful information, it is not a guarantee of future performance which could be completely different.


SDG

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