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Rate Hike and Dr. Livingstone I Presume

Writer: Doug MacGray
Doug MacGray
8 hours ago
4 min read

September 20, 2026


THE FED INCREASES INTEREST RATES: The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% increase to its key interest rate, the first rate hike since 2023. The decision was unanimous. The federal funds rate now stands at 3.75%-4.0%. The Fed's statement included the following: "Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2% goal." The Fed also revealed that most of the committee members see at least one more rate hike, maybe two.


A MIXED WEEK: The S&P 500 was down slightly, but the NASDAQ Composite was up 0.7%. International stocks of both developed and developing economies were down. The Russell 2000 (small company stocks) was down 1.5%. The Fed's action had a negative effect on stocks, but since it did not come as a surprise, the effect was limited. But investors will be parsing how companies will respond to rising costs of borrowing. Some companies can easily absorb it while others might struggle. Currently we have a market where trepidation about the Middle East and inflation is being weighed against AI optimism.



LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.



U.S. RETAIL SALES: Retail sales in the U.S. rose by 1.2% in August. The U.S. consumer remains resilient. Eleven of the twelve categories of sales rose, so the increase was broad-based.


BANK OF JAPAN: The Bank of Japan increased its benchmark interest rate to 1.25%, its highest level since 1995.


HOUSING STARTS DECLINE: New home construction continued to struggle, decreasing by 2.6% in August. The decrease was due to a sharp decline in starts of multi-family homes. Starts of single-family homes rose by 7.6% to a five-month high, and are now 5.2% higher than a year ago. Home construction overall has been on a downward trend since the Fed began raising rates in March 2022. The issue for builders is, of course, affordability. Can buyers afford the homes they are building?


TO WHAT STATE SHOULD YOU MOVE WHEN YOU RETIRE?: WalletHub recently analyzed all 50 states for retirement friendliness using financial factors such as tax rates and cost of living, as well as factors such as access to quality medical care and enjoyable activities. The top five states were:

  1. Wyoming

  2. Florida

  3. South Dakota

  4. Colorado

  5. Minnesota


The worst five were:

46. Hawaii

47. West Virginia

48. Mississippi

49. Oklahoma

50. Kentucky


Delaware came in 7th, Pennsylvania 8th, and New Jersey 35th.


A COOL FIND: My wife and I enjoy going to antique stores, antique malls, flea markets, and the like. One of the things I am drawn to is old books. To find an interesting old book in these places is often like finding a needle in a haystack. I found such a needle recently. I started browsing on a shelf that had some old-looking books, and I found this first edition of Henry Stanley's book that he wrote after he found Dr. Livingstone (of "Dr. Livingstone, I presume" fame). I did some quick research and discovered that the price was on the very low end of what this book is worth, and so, for that reason, and because I want to read it, I bought it.



...AND SPEAKING OF READING: What are you reading? I always love to hear what books people are currently reading. I just finished reading History of Pompeii, A City Frozen in Time, and I am now simultaneously reading Good Money by John Coleman and East of Eden by John Steinbeck.


Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.



Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545




"America now is stumbling through the darkness of hatred and divisiveness. Our values, our principles, and our determination to succeed as a free and democratic people will give us a torch to light the way. And we will survive and become the stronger - not only because of a patriotism that stands for love of country, but a patriotism that stands for love of people.” Gerald Ford*


“The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is slave to the lender." Proverbs 22:7 (NIV)


*In commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the United States, I am finding a quote from a president each week, in order. This is the 38th week, and Gerald Ford was our 38th president.


SOURCES:

TO WHAT STATE SHOULD YOU MOVE WHEN YOU RETIRE?: https://wallethub.com/edu/best-and-worst-states-to-retire/18592


© 2026 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC. All Rights Reserved


*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it is a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large-cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.


Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


The information contained herein has been compiled from third-party sources (see above) and is believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy is not guaranteed. This newsletter is not an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell securities, and you should not construe it as investment, tax, or legal advice, or a specific investment recommendation. Any opinion included in this newsletter is our judgment as of the date of this report and is subject to change without notice.


If you want any additional information regarding Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, including management fees and expenses, you can contact us directly, or review our Form ADV Part 2, which can be found here (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov), or which we will be happy to provide to you upon request. Only God knows the future, and so while past performance can be helpful information, it is not a guarantee of future performance which could be completely different.


SDG

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