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USA Birthday, Stocks Rise, and Grandparenting

  • Writer: Doug MacGray
    Doug MacGray
  • 4 days ago
  • 4 min read

July 7, 2026



250 YEARS: The birthday of the United States of America occurred over this weekend. I am old enough to remember the bicentennial. Gerald Ford was president because the elected president and vice president resigned in disgrace. The Democrats were deciding between Jimmy Carter, Frank Church, and Edmund Brown to run against Ford. Israeli commandos were carrying out a daring raid at Entebbe Airport in Uganda, rescuing 105 hostages. The Vietnam war had recently ended. Italian communists were gaining power, causing concern during the ongoing Cold War. We were going through stagflation (high inflation and high unemployment). Inflation peaked at 12% in 1974-75 and was still in the 7% range. Unemployment was around 8%. We were highly dependent on the Middle East for oil. New York City almost went bankrupt in 1975. In short, the country faced remarkable challenges. In 1776, the people of the newly minted United States of America faced remarkable challenges. In 2026, we face remarkable challenges. But on this weekend, it was nice to see Americans showing gratitude for what we do have in a country where we have the freedom to engage in critical thinking and freedom of expression as we try to tackle the challenges facing this generation. Happy birthday U.S.A!


57,000 NEW JOBS: In June, the U.S. economy produced a disappointing 57,000 net new jobs. For the first six months of the year, we have averaged 92,000 jobs per month. In 2025, we averaged 10,000 per month. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% in June.


STOCK MARKET RISES: With June's labor market coming in weaker than expected, it gave investors hope that the Fed will not increase rates this year, causing a rally. The rally was broad with new gains in healthcare, consumer staples and other sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Index hit a new high. Although the Russell 2000 (small U.S. company stocks) struggled a bit this week, that index is up nearly 22% this year doubling the NASDAQ Composite for the first six months of this year.



LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.



TECH SECTOR OUTPERFORMANCE: Below is a graph showing the level of outperformance of the tech sector of the S&P 500 versus the S&P 500 more broadly. As you can see, this is the biggest period of outperformance for the tech sector ever. The tech sector now accounts for nearly 40% of the S&P 500 by weight.



FED NOT HITTING ITS TARGET: The Fed has a 2% target for inflation, and the Core PCE index is the one it most closely follows. It has not met its target since the inflation following the massive government interventions occurred after the COVID outbreak. And the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, steps into his role with the highest level of internal dissent in over thirty years.


U.S. MANUFACTURING GROWTH RATE SLIGHTLY DECLINES: The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 53.3 in June, slightly lower than the previous month. Any reading over 50.0 means growth. So, the U.S. manufacturing is still expanding. This is the sixth consecutive month of expansion in U.S. manufacturing according to this index.


JOYS OF GRANDPARENTHOOD: At the bicentennial 50 years ago, I did not take for granted that I would have a family, never mind a slew of grandchildren. As such, I now feel ridiculously blessed. Our beach vacation was a couple of weeks ago now, but my daughter just posted this picture online. My grandkids are 8,7,4,3,2, and 1. This is the one-year-old. She is a coy little girl who adores mommy and daddy, and everyone else, not so much. I made it a mission during the week with her to win her over. This was toward the end of the week. Mom and dad were swimming, and sweet Violet was playing around under the canopy with us. After quite a bit of active play, she looked at me and with a big smile on her face walked toward me and put out her hands to basically say, "pick me up." That was a big deal. I did, and she immediately nuzzled in and within minutes was out. Pretty cool.


HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY, CHUCKS STYLE!


Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.



Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545



"We must dare to be great; and we must realize that greatness is the fruit of toil and sacrifice and high courage." William Howard Taft*


"Whatever is true, whatever is noble, whatever is right, whatever is pure, whatever is lovely, whatever is admirable--if anything is excellent or praiseworthy--think about such things." Philippians 4:8 (NIV)


*In commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the United States, I am finding a quote from a president each week, in order. This is the 27th week, and William Howard Taft was our 27th president.


SOURCES:

TECH SECTOR OUTPERFORMANCE: YCharts.com

FED NOT HITTING ITS TARGET: YCharts.com

U.S. MANUFACTURING GROWTH RATE SLIGHTLY DECLINES: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/7/1/the-ism-manufacturing-index-declined-to-53.3-in-june (c) 2026 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


SDG *S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

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