Insights

March 22, 2026 THE WAR: Obviously, economic and market news is dominated by the Iranian war. How and when will it end, and how bad will the oil infrastructure in that part of the world be damaged? When big questions like this have no easy answer, fear leads trading. It is difficult to determine how the war will end. The U.S. seems to want to see a popular revolt that transitions the government to something new and stable and not tryanical and globally disruptive. A mili

March 15, 2026 "Beware the Ides of March." Soothsayer, Julius Caesar , William Shakespeare OIL PRICES RISE: The U.S. is now the world's largest oil producer. And yet, the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy. About 80% of the oil moving through that Strait ends up in Asian countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Thus, despite the U.S.'s status, a disruption in this one narrow waterway affects global oil prices of oil immediatel

March 1, 2026 GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS: Last week, I briefly discussed geopolitical events, and the possibility of fighting in the Middle East. As I sit and write this, the information is fairly sparse, but the U.S. has attacked Iran. Events will continue to unfold as the weekend rolls on (I write this on Saturday morning generally), and investors will be figuring out what to do on Monday morning. The short-term effect is often a decrease in market prices as some investors jus

February 22, 2026 TARIFF TURMOILS REDUX: Late in the week, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs. Immediately thereafter, the Trump administration announced new global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 which authorizes the president to address "large and serious" trade imbalances with up to a 15% tariff on imports. The short-term impact of this activity

February 15, 2026 INFLATION RATE DECREASES: In welcome news, the January Consumer Price index came in at 0.2% higher than the previous month, and only 2.4% higher than one year ago. "Core" CPI (which strips out energy and food) rose by 2.5% over the past twelve months. Both CPI and core CPI twelve-month numbers now sit at or near their lowest level since inflation began to rise five years ago. And yet it remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0%. Energy prices i

February 8, 2026 THE ROTATION CONTINUES: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (2.50%) and the Russell 2000 (2.17%) were both solidly positive for the week, but the S&P 500 (see below) and the NASDAQ Composite (-1.84%) ended the week in the red. The blue-chip Dow hit 50,000 for the first time on Friday. Of late, investors have grown wary of the AI stock run and moved money to so-called "real economy" stocks that rely on the entire economy to grow. The Dow is limited to 30 stoc

February 1, 2026 THE FED KEEPS RATES STEADY: The Fed met last week and held rates unchanged. When this happens, economists and investors parse the words of the announcement. The Fed statement said U.S. economic growth was "solid," while in earlier announcements it said "moderate." Inflation "remains somewhat elevated." Unemployment has "shown some signs of stabilization." Two Fed governors voted for a rate cut. The Fed believes that inflation has been affected by tar

January 25, 2026 STOCKS BOUNCE AROUND AS GEOPOLITICAL NEWS DOMINATES: Will the U.S. and Europe have a tariff and trade war? As that theme dominated the news, and as world leaders gave speeches in Davos, stocks sunk, and bounced, and then hovered as nervous investors settled down, and the week ended about where it started. Intel reported a larger-than-expected loss in its fourth quarter of 2025 earnings report, and the stock decreased by 17% (still up over 100% in the past

January 4, 2026 2025 TURNED OUT TO BE A SOLID YEAR FOR STOCKS, BONDS, AND MORE: Stocks ended the year near record highs. The S&P 500 just had its third best three-year run ever. Most thought that streak was coming to a screeching halt back in April. But that dip turned back into a bull market within weeks. Tech continued to be a big driver of the gains with Nvidia up 40%, Broadcom up 51%, Alphabet up 66%, Advanced Micro Devices up 78%, and Palantir up a whopping 139% for