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War, Oil, Entrepreneurs, and Slainte!

  • Writer: Doug MacGray
    Doug MacGray
  • Mar 22
  • 5 min read

March 22, 2026

THE WAR: Obviously, economic and market news is dominated by the Iranian war. How and when will it end, and how bad will the oil infrastructure in that part of the world be damaged? When big questions like this have no easy answer, fear leads trading. It is difficult to determine how the war will end. The U.S. seems to want to see a popular revolt that transitions the government to something new and stable and not tryanical and globally disruptive. A military coup is another possibility where more secular leaders step forward and accommodates some of the U.S. demands. For now, a quick doubling of oil prices ($65 pre-war and $110 now) and fear of continued spikes up to as much as $200 plague investors all over the globe. As a net petroleum exporter, the U.S. is in a position to be more resilient than many economies. It seems apparent that a lot of money on the sidelines is waiting for a glimmer of good news about the war and oil shipping. Once that occurs, attention will return to the overall health of the U.S and global economy, and whether any of this geopolitical disruption will have longer term effects.


THE FED: The Fed had a lot to say but took no action on interest rates. The Fed is processing geopolitical events and how they shape outlook. In an obvious statement, the Fed announcement stated that, "the implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain." The Fed now believes we will have short-lived (they did not say "transitory") inflation, but that it will still get to 2.0% by the end of 2027. Its overall statements about economic growth changed little. It is probably too early to determine when the war will wind down and what the longer-term effects of oil production disruption will do to the global economy and prices of goods. No one expected the Fed to do anything, so this announcement had little effect on the markets.

OIL UP AGAIN: The price of oil is bouncing around, but in an upward direction. The Brent Crude Oil spot price ended the week at $111 after hitting $118 earlier in the week. Where will it go this week?



FOUR WEEKS OF DECREASES: Disruptions to the world's supply of oil is causing fear and lower stock prices worldwide. The S&P 500 is now down almost 5% for the year. Is it too much panic? Are the markets oversold? It seems clear that until there is some sense that oil supplies will flow freely through the Strait of Hormuz, fear will govern much stock trading, and gains will be hard to come by, but not impossible. Energy and Financial stocks ended positive (2.9% and 0.4% respectively). With oil prices up, and likely to stay up for a bit, there is now speculation that interest rates might rise this year. All negative data gets magnified and obsessed over during seasons of fear, and war is an understandable catalyst for fear.



LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.



PRODUCER PRICE INFLATION: The Producer Price Index (prices at the wholesale level) rose 0.75 in February, a sharp increase. The PPI registered a 3.4% annual inflation rate. This reading essentially cemented the Fed's decision to not decrease interest rates last week.


BRICS: In the recent past, one fear is that the so-called BRICS coalition will create a formidable economic foe to the United States. BRICS stands for the original coalition of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Iran joined in 2024. The obvious counterargument to this fear is that these countries do not get along. Evidence of that occurred this past week when South Africa slapped a heavy tariff on Chinese steel (75%) after South Africa concluded that China was dumping cheap steel products into the country.


TAKING MATTERS INTO THEIR OWN HANDS: I have never worked for a huge corporation (unless you consider my early jobs at Jack in the Box and Roy Rogers restaurants). I have always preferred smaller entities, and I have spent a significant amount of my adult life in entrepreneurial ventures. It requires the ability to take risks, but it gives you a bit more control (and responsibility!). When big companies become less dependable (meaning, they start laying off a lot of people or threatening to), it creates more entrepreneurs. If workers can't depend on big corporate, they take matters into their own hands. It appears that the AI scare that the technology will make many jobs at big corporations obsolete, is driving a new wave of entrepreneurism. According to the Census Bureau, there were more than 500,000 new-business plications in January, up 37% from a year ago.


SLOW OUT OF THE GATE: My family participates in a March Madness pool. I'm seventh out of nine participants. After the first round, I'm right behind my 8-year-old grandson Judah. I must beat him for my own self-respect.


SLAINTE!: Last week was St. Patrick's Day, and we celebrated with family. My great-great grandfather William O'Gara, and my wife's great great-grandfather Patrick Bonner were saluted, as well as my recently-passed father in law Cletus Daniel Bonner (100% Irish and proud of it).




Below are two random pictures from last's year's Ireland trip (I want to go back soon!). It is really that green.



Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.



Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545



"I shall pursue a straight forward course deviating neither to the right or left so that comes what may I hope my real friends will never have to blush for me, so far as truth, honesty & fair dealings are concerned." Zachary Taylor


"A generous person will prosper; whoever refreshes others will be refreshed." Proverbs 11:25 (NIV)


*In commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the United States, I am finding a quote from a president each week, in order. This is the twelfth week, and Zachary Taylor was our twelfth president.


SOURCES:

OIL UP AGAIN: YCharts.com


(c) 2026 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved


Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

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