Iran War Continues, Stocks and Jobs Decline, Oil and Gas Supplies Squeezed, and I Did Not Break Any Bones Again

March 1, 2026

U.S. EMPLOYMENT DECREASES BY 92,000: The U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs in February. Two factors exacerbated February. One was a severe winter storm, and the other was a nurses' strike that accounted for about 28,000 of the negative jobs numbers. The private sector shed 86,000 jobs. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% (from 4.3%). In January, the U.S. added 126,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings went up by a healthy 0.4% and are up by 3.8% over the past year.

PRIME AGE UNEMPLOYMENT REMAINING STABLE: For those in the so-called prime working years, aged 25-54, the unemployment rate (about 3.5%) remains stable and healthy. The share of workers in that age group with a job has remained at a multi-decade high since early 2023. The Labor Force Participation Rate for that age group is currently about 84%, the highest in decades. The amount of U.S. workers who are not in the labor force because they say that they are "discouraged" is at its lowest point since June 2024. The number of workers who are working "part-time for economic reasons" is also at its lowest point since June 2024.

OIL AND LNG: Since the U.S. and Israel began their attack on Iran, the Brent Crude Oil spot price has risen by 8.3%. Approximately 20% of all liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in 2024 came from Qatar (most of which goes to East Asia). About one third of all crude oil and 18% of all refined petroleum products exported in 2024 came from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. As of right now, those exports have come close to a complete stop. The Strait of Hormuz is unsafe for tanker transit. In addition, much of the infrastructure in the area is under attack from Iran. The longer the attacks continue, the harder it will be to restore production. In the short term, at least, this will impact prices and impact growth.

STOCKS PRICES DECREASE: The U.S. stock market was showing some resilience all week as it seemed to bounce back after every setback, but by Friday, the combination of oil prices rising above $90, a weak jobs report, and no sign of Iran de-escalation, was too much. Friday cemented a negative week for U.S. markets.

LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.

U.S. RETAILS SALES DECREASE IN JANUARY: Economists were expecting a decline in retail sales in January due to bad weather, and it did decrease, but not as much as expected, down 0.2% for the month. Sales declined in health and personal care stores, clothing stores, and sporting goods stores. Sales at non-store retailers were up, which makes sense as consumers spent a lot of time in January stuck at home.

HEALTH INSURANCE COSTS: In a recent survey of companies in New York and New Jersey, health insurance costs have jumped by 14.2% for manufacturing companies and 12.9% for service companies this year.

U.S. MANUFACTURING IS GROWING: According to the Institute for Supply Management, U.S. manufacturing grew for the second month in a row in February. The index came in at 52.4 (anything above 50.0 means growth). It was 52.6 in January. It had been running negative for 10 months, and mostly negative for the past three years.

U.S. SERVICE ECONOMY IS ALSO GROWING: According to the Institute for Supply Management, the service sector of the U.S. economy is growing. The index came in at 56.1, the highest in over three years.

CHINA IN A TOUGH SPOT: China bought 1.38 million of barrels of oil per day from Iran last year and takes over 80% of everything Iran ships. Half of China's total oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

PARENTS SHOWING UP AT JOB INTERVIEWS: A recent survey by a career site (Zety.com) found that 20% of Generation Z workers admitted that a parent had joined them during a job interview.

THE ANNUAL SKI TRIP: For 23 years, a bunch of guys have been joining together for an annual ski trip. We have been to a variety of places, but we often come back to Park City, Utah, which was our choice once again this year. The mountain states in the western United States have not received nearly as much snow as usual, but it was enough, and we got some snow while we were there, which made for some great conditions.

Have a great week!

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President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

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"Life is 10 percent what happens to you and 90 percent how you respond to it." Lou Holtz (1937-2026)

"A republican government can only be supported by virtue; and the end of all our legislation should be to encourage our fellow citizens in its daily practice." John Tyler*

"Invest in seven ventures, yes, in eight; you do not know what disaster may come upon the land." Ecclesiastes 11:2 (NIV)

*In commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the United States, I am finding a quote from a president each week, in order. This is the tenth week, and John Tyler was our tenth president.

SOURCES:

U.S. RETAILS SALES DECREASE IN JANUARY: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/3/6/retail-sales-declined-0.2percent-in-january

U.S. EMPLOYMENT DECREASES BY 92,000: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/3/6/nonfarm-payrolls-fell-92,000-in-february

CHINA IN A TOUGH SPOT: https://substack.com/inbox/post/189673401

OIL AND LNG: YCharts.com AND https://theovershoot.co/p/if-you-thought-the-inflation-outlook?r=s86er

PRIME AGE UNEMPLOYMENT REMAINING STABLE: https://theovershoot.co/p/if-you-thought-the-inflation-outlook?r=s86er AND https://usafacts.org/answers/what-is-the-labor-force-participation-rate-in-the-us/country/united-states/

U.S. MANUFACTURING IS GROWING: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/3/2/the-ism-manufacturing-index-declined-to-52.4-in-february

U.S. SERVICE ECONOMY IS ALSO GROWING: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/3/4/the-ism-non-manufacturing-index-rose-to-56.1-in-february

PARENTS SHOWING UP AT JOB INTERVIEWS: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/shocking-number-gen-zers-are-bringing-mommy-daddy-job-interviews

HEALTH INSURANCE COSTS: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/companies-report-raging-inflation-except-wages-rents

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Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.