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Big Rally, Diversification, Mixed Economic Signs, Tax Day is Over, and I Beat My Grandson

  • Writer: Doug MacGray
    Doug MacGray
  • 5 days ago
  • 4 min read

April 19, 2026


OIL PRICES EDGE DOWN: The Brent Crude Oil spot price edged down from last week's closing price of $119 to $116. This is progress, but whether it holds depends on whether there is progress or setbacks in the Middle East this week.



STOCK RALLY CONTINUES: Continued news of progress in ending hostilities in the Middle East pushed stocks higher again on Friday, confirming a third straight week of stock gains. Comments by the Iranian Foreign Minister that the Strait of Hormuz was open and a cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon caused the optimistic trading at the end of the week. Tech stocks had a great week. The NASDAQ Composite rose nearly 7% for the week pulling that index back into positive territory for the year. That index has risen for thirteen strait trading days.



LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.


EVEN BETTER: Back in 2023 and 2024, investors may have forgotten that there was anything to invest in other than the S&P 500, or indeed, the Magnificent Seven. Diversification has come back to the forefront as other areas of the investable markets have done well. The Russell 2000, an index of smaller publicly traded U.S. companies is up 12.26% year-to-date. The MSCI EEM, an index of emerging markets stocks, is up 16.32% year-to-date.


U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION STEPS BACK: After four months of increases, U.S. industrial production decreased in March. The Iran war uncertainty is blamed as overall activity declined. The auto sector fell 3.8%. If you removed that sector, manufacturing actually rose by 0.1% for the month. Production of high tech equipment (thank you AI) rose 0.7%. Mining activity decreased 1.2%. Utilities output decreased 2.3%.


JOBLESS CLAIMS: In the week ending April 11, 207,000 initial claims for unemployment were filed, an 11,000 decrease from the prior week. Layoffs are remaining historically low. Despite broad economic uncertainty (when is it certain), the labor market remains stable.

PRODUCER PRICES INCREASE: With rising oil prices, it was no surprise that producer prices increased in March. The overall PPI rose 0.5% for the month. Energy costs for producers rose 8.5% in March. Food prices declined 0.3%.


ALLBIRDS CRAZE: There was a bit of irrational exuberance at Allbirds, a shoe company which has been floundering (stock price was down 99% from its initial public offering in 2021). Allbirds announced it is shifting to AI compute infrastructure and changing its name to NewBird AI. After the announcement, Allbirds stock rose 600% on Wednesday before coming back down to earth a bit.



TAX SEASON IS OVER, KIND OF: Unless you filed for an extension, tax season is over. So who pays taxes in the U.S.? The latest full year of data we have from the U.S. is 2023. If you were in the top 1% of earners ($675,602 or more), you paid 38.4% of all income taxes paying at a rate of about 26%. If you were in the next tier down (5% 5o 1%), you carried 20.9% of the overall burden, paying at a rate of about 19%. If you were in the bottom 50% (earning $53,800 or less) your share of the total burden was 3.3%, paying at a rate of just under 4%.


CREEPY: My wife and I enjoy going to antique stores. Last weekend, we visited one, and I got the shivers looking at this display. Did little girls really play with these?



SHOULD I LET HIM WIN?: I took my 8-year-old grandson out to dinner last week, and we also played a round of mini golf. At the end of the golf he said, "Can we play again?" It was tempting, but I thought it is good to leave him wanting more. I played left handed (so did Judah, but he is left-handed), and I beat him, but not by a lot. Should I have let him win? He didn't seem to mind which is a sign he is growing up. He'll beat me eventually...probably soon.


Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honour God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.



Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545




"[W]e are bombarded with messages telling us that money will buy happiness and, worse, that money is a sign of our value as human beings. This is a lie." John Coleman, Good Money, 2026, p.4


"In the end, it's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years." Abraham Lincoln*


"Be sure you know the condition of your flocks, give careful attention to your herds; for riches do not endure forever, and a crown is not secure for all generations." Proverbs 27:223-24 (NIV)


*In commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the United States, I am finding a quote from a president each week, in order. This is the 16th week, and Abraham Lincoln was our 16th president.


SOURCES:

EVEN BETTER: YCharts.com


(c) 2026 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved


Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

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