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Five Weeks, and Counting? 101 Years, and a New Life

  • Writer: Support Team
    Support Team
  • 6 days ago
  • 4 min read

Updated: 5 days ago

March 29, 2026


OIL UP AGAIN: The price of oil continues to bounce around in a general upward direction. Last week, the Brent Crude oil price ended at $111, and it settled on Friday at $113, not much higher, but a lot of drama on the way there, causing a lot of fear.



FIVE WEEKS OF DECREASES: U.S. stocks continue to take a hit, suffering its fifth week of declines since the Iran war began. The NASDAQ Composite index is down 9.73% year-to-date. The exchange-traded fund that holds only the Magnificent Seven stocks is down 15.15% year-to-date. It did not help that Meta (parent company to Facebook) was hit with a $375 million verdict against it for misleading users about child safety. It will take some positive turn on the Iran war front to stop the bleeding. Meanwhile, other market sectors are not faring as badly. The Russell 2000 (small-cap U.S. stocks) is down only -1.05% year-to-date. Bonds are down less than one percent (see below). International stocks are closer to breaking even (see below). Emerging market stocks (as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index) are up 2.71%. Rare earth and uranium ETFs are up year-to-date. Within the S&P 500, the energy, materials, utilities, industrials, and consumer defensive sectors are all positive year-to-date. If you have a diversified portfolio, you are probably doing okay so far. But if you are concentrated in large U.S. stocks, you are likely seeing a lot of red. Is the U.S. stock market oversold? Will we see a bounce? Or will the continuation of the war and no oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive stocks down for another week?



LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualised three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.



THE IRAN WAR AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: I will quote at length a Goldman Sachs analyst, Joseph Briggs, position: "[E]ach 10% increase in oil prices lowers global GDP by a bit more than 0.1%, raises global headline inflation by 0.2pp--with larger impacts in Asia ex-China and Europe--and leads core inflation of 0.03-0.06% higher, depending on the country. For now, these rules imply moderate hits to growth and boosts to inflation, but those impacts could quickly grow should energy flows remain disrupted for a prolonged period."

NO DEAL: The U.S. Senate passed a spending deal to end the shutdown. But not so fast. The House of Representatives apparently does not like the deal, and so the shutdown will likely continue. Travel will continue to be problematic. I am hearing lots of conflicting reports, three-hour waits in some airports, and no waits in others. The uncertainty is not going to help the travel industry.


STUDENT LOAN DEBT: As of the end of 2025, student loan debt reached $1.8 trillion. That is a 211% increase from 2007. Most, over 90%, are federal loans. Over 45 million unique individuals carry student loan debt in the U.S. Of those, over 3.8 million have more than $100,000 in federal student loan debt. In March 2020, Congress passed the CARES Act, which paused payments on student loans. Payments were set to resume in 2023, but the pause was delayed until October 2024. By the end of 2025, 16.3% of total student loan debt is seriously delinquent, the highest on record.


101 FAITHFUL YEARS: Over the course of the last several months, we have witnessed the deaths of several clients. No matter the age, it is difficult to see lives end, to see grieved loved ones, and to lose a relationship. Two weekends ago, I attended a shiva for a beloved 92-year-old client who passed. Not long before that, our client John, who had been suffering from a variety of health issues, passed away, leaving his grieving widow who we are working with. The list goes on. It is an incredible privilege to serve people all the way to the end, but it can be a bit of an emotional roller coaster.


This past week, our oldest client passed away. Rosemary was 101 years old. She died in Spain, where her late husband passed 30 years ago. She never stopped working and caring for others. In response to this weekly email, she would often send me words of encouragement, motivated by her devout faith.


How fortunate am I to have been able to serve this lady! But I am going to miss her emails.


NEW LIFE!: As we grieve the loss of life here at Stonecrop, we also celebrate new life. Our colleague Dalton Greiner's wife had a daughter, Adelaide! All are doing well. We are excited for Dalton and his wife, Madeline, as they start the adventure of raising this beautiful little girl.


Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honour God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.



Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545




"Among the acknowledged rights of nations is that which each possesses of establishing that form of government which it may deem most conducive to the happiness and prosperity of its own citizens, of changing that form as circumstances may require, and of managing its internal affairs according to its own will." Millard Fillmore


"Those who work their land will have abundant food, but those who chase fantasies have no sense." Proverbs 12:11 (NIV)


*In commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the United States, I am finding a quote from a president each week, in order. This is the thirteenth week, and Millard Fillmore was our thirteenth president.


SOURCES:

OIL UP AGAIN: YCharts.com

(c) 2026 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved

Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

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