Oil Down, Stocks Up After Cease Fire, Less Workers, and a Fiske's Reunion

April 12, 2026

MARCH INFLATION SPIKES DUE TO GAS PRICES: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% in March as gas prices jumped 21.2%. This raised the year-over-year number to 3.3%, up from 2.4% last month. The Fed pays much closer attention to the so-called "core" CPI which excludes energy costs due to its volatility. Core CPI rose 0.2% and the annual number was 2.6%.

OIL PRICES MOVED UP, THEN DOWN: The price of oil kept rising last week, and then began to come down, closing Friday at a little over $119 per barrel.

STOCKS ROAR BACK: All through the Iran war stock decline, we were getting indications that investors were waiting for some decisive good news to jump back in. They got it last week with news of a cease fire that, shaky as it seems, was enough. The S&P 500 recorded its best week all year, and continued what is now a seven day streak of positive outcomes. Last week, the markets roared, and then limped later in the week. For the coming week, much will depend on any news regarding Middle East cease fire negotiations and prospects for free flowing oil once again.

LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.

MAKING SENSE OF THE U.S. LABOR MARKET: As you can see in the graph below, weekly initial jobless claims data has been in a healthy range for several years since the government shutdowns lifted. While it has bounced around a bit, it has stayed in a rather tight range since that time. Even more significant is that while there is a general concern about the health of the labor market, this data point keeps staying healthy, and lately, getting healthier. For the week ending March 28, only 202,000 initial jobless claims were filed, and the four week moving average moved to its lowest point ever (since records started to be kept in 1967). On the other hand, the amount of net new jobs added to the economy each month is consistently down in the past year. Last month, the U.S. economy added about 180,000 new jobs, a very healthy number. But that has not been the recent norm. Some of March's strong numbers may come from the fact that two nursing strikes (California and Hawaii) ended, and the harsh winter weather tapered off. But the amount of net new jobs over the past year has been much less than what we had been getting in the post-2020 era. How does the current administration's immigration policy affect these numbers? First, the overall labor force, unlike the past, is not growing. According to the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, about 550,000 "unauthorized workers" left the labor market in 2025. According to the Department of Homeland Security, roughly 3 million people left the U.S, 800,000 through forced deportations and another 2.2 million voluntary repatriations. As such, according to a recent published report by the Fed, the labor force may grow by somewhere between zero and 10,000 workers per month in 2026, something we have not seen in the U.S. in over 60 years. So, with layoffs low (see below), and net new jobs low, it may be the new reality for a while in an economy where the supply of labor is lower and the demand is potentially holding steady. We will see if this continues to play out as the months progress.

PERSONAL INCOME DECREASED IN FEBRUARY: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released February's report on personal income and expenses last week. Personal income declined by 0.1%. The decline was mostly due to a 0.4% decline in government transfer payments caused by smaller subsidy payments under the Affordable Care Act. Private sector incomes rose by 0.2% and are up 4.6% over the past year. Personal consumption spending increased by 0.5% in February.

OUR GOVERNMENT SPENDS TOO MUCH MONEY: A key metric for the long-term health of the U.S. economy is going to be this data point. While the total deficit number is critical to watch, the chart below follows the government debt to U.S. GDP ratio. You can see the pattern. The last time the U.S. government balanced its budget was the Clinton/Gingrich stare down in the last century. It has spiked several times since, and it rarely comes down. As you can see, after the massive government transfer payments in 2020 and thereafter, the ratio has come back down some, but then just hovered in the same range. That must come down, and we will show you this number from time to time to see if it does.

FISKE'S GENERAL STORE: In the small town of Holliston, Massachusetts, there is a general store called Fiske's. It has been in the same spot on Washington Street since 1863. My wife and I took a quick trip up to Holliston this weekend to visit my mom and see other family members. I grew up in this town, and Fiske's was where I earned my first paycheck as a paperboy delivering the Framingham News and the Milford News on my stingray bicycle. I have not been back to Fiske's in many decades, but I decided to drop in and say hello. My boss back in the day, Louis Paltrineri, a decorated World War II veteran, is no longer with us, having passed in 2015. His picture is still up in the store, and his son owns and runs the place. We had a nice, nostalgic conversation.

Have a great week!

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President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

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"Cast but a glance at riches, and they are gone, for they will surely sprout wings and fly off to the sky like an eagle." Proverbs 23:5

*In commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the United States, I am finding a quote from a president each week, in order. This is the 15th week, and James Buchanan was our 15th president.

SOURCES:

MAKING SENSE OF THE U.S. LABOR MARKET: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA# AND https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/labor-force-growth-breakeven-employment-and-potential-gdp-growth-20260402.html

MARCH INFLATION SPIKES DUE TO GAS PRICES: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/4/10/the-consumer-price-index-cpi-rose-0.9percent-in-march

PERSONAL INCOME DECREASED IN FEBRUARY: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/4/9/personal-income-declined-0.1percent-in-february

OUR GOVERNMENT SPENDS TOO MUCH MONEY: YCharts.com

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Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.