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Oil Prices Up, Stocks Down, Incomes Up, and Who's Afraid of AI?

  • Writer: Doug MacGray
    Doug MacGray
  • Mar 15
  • 6 min read

March 15, 2026


"Beware the Ides of March."  Soothsayer, Julius Caesar, William Shakespeare


OIL PRICES RISE: The U.S. is now the world's largest oil producer. And yet, the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy. About 80% of the oil moving through that Strait ends up in Asian countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Thus, despite the U.S.'s status, a disruption in this one narrow waterway affects global oil prices of oil immediately. Below is a graph of the Brent Crude Oil Wholesale Spot Petroleum price since the beginning of the war. This index rose by 11% last week. Prices settled above $100 per barrel, and they peaked at over $120 on Monday. Taking inflation into account, that is still lower than prices during the first few months of the Russia/Ukraine war (remember that one?). Moreover, at $100 per barrel, if you take inflation into account, that is about the average oil price since 1988. Will prices spike further as the war continues? As long as Iran can choke the Strait of Hormuz, the answer is most certainly 'yes.' But the ability of the U.S. to produce its own, and in the short term, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, may lessen the blow. The U.S. has a Strategic Petroleum Reserve. As of March 6, the SPR had 415 million barrels, up from the recent low of 346 million in mid 2023. In 2020, we had 638 million barrels in our SPR, and we have capacity for over 700 million. The current price of oil released from the SPR is $29.70 per barrel. Last week, the 32-member IEA (which includes the U.S.) approved a 400-million-barrel release from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves, and much will come from the U.S. Stability of oil prices is the goal. We will see if that can be achieved.



STOCKS DECREASE AGAIN: With a war raging in the Middle East and with oil shipments being challenged, it is no wonder that fear is having a big impact on stock prices. Stock prices decreased for the third week in a row. The big fear, of course, is energy prices. High energy prices ripple through every aspect of the economy. Economic news, other than the war and energy prices, has been unremarkable, and so the war and its effects dominate. As long as it appears that Iran can successfully disrupt that Strait, and we don't find other ways of moving oil from the region, and the war continues to look like it will not end soon, this oil and energy cost volatility and economic disruption will continue. The movement of stocks downward has been relatively contained. In the midst of it all, there have been rallies that have stalled. Any progress in the Iran situation that proves to be real will give investors the signal they need to jump back in. Although past performance is no guarantee of future results, all of Stonecrop's model portfolios remain positive for the year.



LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.



INCOMES ROSE IN JANUARY: Private sector pay rose 0.6% in January. Government transfer payments rose 0.8% (Social Security payments rose 3.1% due to the cost-of-living adjustment). Over the past twelve months, private sector wages and salaries have been up 5.0%, and government transfer payments are up 8.5%.


INFLATION MOVES LITTLE: According to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation index, prices rose 0.3% in January, and were up 2.8% year over year, a slight drop from the 2.9% reading last month. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February and is up 2.4% year over year. Inflation seems to be holding to the stubbornly high range between 2.4% and nearly 3.0%, and next month's prices are almost guaranteed to go up with the oil price surge.


DURABLE GOODS ORDERS STAY ABOUT THE SAME: New orders for durable goods in January remained the same as in December. There was a 0.9% decline in transportation equipment (23.7% drop in defense aircraft). Transportation is a volatile category month to month. If you exclude transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.4%. Orders for computers and electronic products rose 0.8%.


401(k) HARDSHIP WITHDRAWALS INCREASING: In 2018, Congress relaxed rules a bit on taking hardship withdrawals from 401(k) plans. Since that time, such withdrawals have increased every year, not a good thing for the state of everyday Americans' readiness for financial independence. Hardship withdrawals in 2025 hit a record high 6%, up from 4.8% in 2024. If you have a lot of money in your 401(k), but very little liquid cash reserves, I highly recommend you work on that reserve fund. Nearly half of Americans do not have $1,000 set aside for unexpected expenses.


AI AND THE FINANCIAL PLANNING AND INVESTMENT ADVISORY PROFESSION?: I have noticed in my many years in this business that there are two distinct types of financial advisors: 1) those primarily in it because it is a good way to make money, and 2) those primarily in it because it is a good way to help human beings thrive. Of course, the latter category financial advisor can make money, but if that is your primary focus, in my opinion, you will burn out. A financial advisor of the latter category recently wrote an article stating why he is not worried about AI taking his job. I agree with him. I will quote him at length:


  • "But where I can pontificate with more experience and authority is in the wealth advisory profession, where I know the role of human nature first hand. I know the temptations clients feel to make mistakes, and I know the antidote to those temptations. They are not and have never been robotic, programmatic, intellectual, or digital. They do not exist in code and they are not transmitted in the cyber sphere. Humans and their money are deeply personal things, and the decisions that are made around money require judgment, wisdom, and prudence. The emotional responses that catalyze bad decisions are not fed from bad inputs; they are not eliminated with good inputs; they come from the core of human nature."

  • "But in no way, shape, or form can the conversations around the vast array of things that come up in an individual’s life be handed off to something that lacks a soul. So here is the problem, though. How many advisors have been functioning as if their value proposition was soulless and digitized, anyway?"


  • "This is where financial advisors are going to clean up in the AI moment - if they have a human value proposition, one with soul, rooted to love....the only advisors hurt by AI will be those who have a dehumanized value proposition now."


What Advisors Really Need to Know About AI and Their Jobs, David Bahnsen, March 11, 2026.


KIDS!: We regularly get the chance to see some or all of the six grandchildren. As you can imagine, if we see all six at once, at least a couple are likely struggling with some sort of cold or something. Then, of course, the adults get it. I fought off the germs that circulated from last weekend's onslaught of grandchildren, but alas, my wife did not. Spring is almost here!


Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.



Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545




"We are bombarded with messages telling us that money will buy happiness and, worse, that money is a sign of our value as human beings.  This is a lie."  John Coleman, Good Money, 2026, p.4


"There is more selfishness and less principle among members of Congress...than I had any conception of before I became president."  John Tyler* 


"Let no debt remain outstanding, except the continuing debt to love one another."  Romans 13:8 (NIV)


*In commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the United States, I am finding a quote from a president each week, in order.  This is the eleventh week, and James K. Polk was our eleventh president.


SOURCES:

OIL PRICES: YCharts.com AND https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/3/12/hormuz,-oil-flows,-and-the-u.s.-strategic-petroleum-reserve AND https://theovershoot.co/p/markets-are-still-sanguine-about?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=s86er&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email


(c) 2026 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved


Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

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