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Stocks Climb, Birth Rates Climb, Housing Mixed, Jack in the Box Shrinks

  • Writer: Doug MacGray
    Doug MacGray
  • Apr 28
  • 3 min read

April 27, 2025


STOCKS CLIMB BACK: Stocks enjoyed a strong week of growth both in the U.S and overseas. Driving the rally was a wave of hope that U.S. tariffs will be scaled back. The week started with President Trump de-escalating a public argument with Fed Chairman Powell and continued with positive news about trade talk progress with Japan and India, among others. Strong earnings reports by Boeing, Capital One, and Alphabet (Google) also boosted the rally. This coming week, the first quarter gross domestic report will have an impact as well as earnings reports by Meta, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft.



LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.



PREVIEW OF U.S. GDP: Most prognosticators I have read are predicting that the U.S. GDP for the first quarter will come out somewhere near zero, maybe slightly up or down, but very close to zero percent growth. Goldman Sachs predicts -0.2%. First Trust predicts 0.2%. Bank of America predicts 0.4%. The Atlanta Fed predicts -0.4%.


SALES OF EXISTING HOMES DECREASE: In March, sales of existing homes (which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops) decreased by 5.9% compared to the month before. March's sales were 2.4% lower than one year ago.



SALES OF NEW HOMES INCREASE: Sales of new single-family homes in March rose by 7.4% from the prior month. March's sales were 6.0% higher than one year ago.


DURABLE GOODS SALES JUMP: In March, orders for durable goods rose by 9.2%. The jump was almost entirely due to Boeing receiving orders for 192 planes after only 13 orders in February. Excluding the transportation sector, orders for durable goods were flat.


WHO OWNS U.S. DEBT?: The U.S. government is in debt to the tune of over $36 trillion. Who owns it? One third is owned by the U.S. government. This is either owned by the Federal Reserve Bank or intergovernmental holdings such as when the U.S. Treasury borrows from the Social Security trust funds and then issues an IOU. The second largest holder of U.S. debt is about $4 trillion held by mutual funds. Banks hold about $1.8 trillion and state and local governments hold about $1.8 trillion. Foreign governments own about $8 trillion. The largest of these is Japan at about a trillion dollars. China holds about $760 billion.


JACK IN THE BOX: After being a paper boy, my next real job was working at Jack In the Box, so it caught my eye when I read the news that the fast food chain is closing 200 restaurants that it classifies as underperforming. According to its first quarter earnings report, sales at its restaurants dipped 4.4%. The company's stock price has fallen by nearly 60% over the past year.


U.S. BIRTHRATE UP A LITTLE: According to the National Center for Health Statistics, there were 3.622 million births in 2024, a 1% increase from the prior year.

WRITING BLOCK: I'm having a hard time coming up with a pithy story this week. Sometimes that happens. So here is a picture of my entire family as we met on Easter Sunday afternoon at our house. It was a beautiful afternoon with a beautiful family.


Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.



Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545



"The world tells us to seek success, power, and money; God tells us to seek humility, service, and love." Pope Francis


"It is fine to be zealous, provided the purpose is good." Galatians 4:18 (NIV)


SOURCES:

STOCKS CLIMB BACK: https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-score-tesla-capital-one-boeing-and-more-stocks-that-defined-the-week-e2d9c4aa?mod=stocks_news_article_pos5 AND https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/weekly-roundup-stock-market-recovery-persists-but-is-the-dollar-permanently-damaged-202504251027

PREVIEW OF U.S. GDP: E.G. https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/blogs/economics/index.aspx AND https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/04/q1-gdp-tracking-no-growth.html


(c) 2025 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved


Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

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