"Love Ya Buddy"

October 11, 2026 A BETTER WEEK: Large U.S. company stocks increased in value last week as the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 all rose for the week. For the moment, concerns about Iran war escalation subsided, which helped. The Russell 2000, an index of smaller company stocks, decreased by 0.9% as concerns of higher borrowing costs impacted investor activity. With all the news going on, it is easy to forget that the S&P 500 is up 2.7% over the last month, and 3.9% over the last three months. It closed on Friday 0.1% off its record high. Over the last month, the mega-cap firms have taken the lead once again. The exchange-traded fund that holds the Magnificent Seven (MAGS) is up 6.5% over the past month.

Going forward, many remain cautiously optimistic for the next three to six months due to corporate earnings resilience and AI investment. But higher borrowing costs, inflation, and political uncertainty (U.S. midterms and some European elections) could trigger volatility. The bond market will get more attention than normal as investors want to see some sense of normalcy back in that market.

LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.

JOBLESS CLAIMS FALLING: Last week's report for new unemployment claims came in at 197,000. That is 2,000 less than the week before and the firth week in a row of a decreased number in this report. This stable labor market puts more pressure on the Fed to set its primary target on fighting inflation. Since the government shut downs caused massive unemployment claims, this data point has continued to trend downwards.

THIRD QUARTER EARNINGS REPORTS BEGIN: Of the 19 companies from the S&P 500 that have reported their third quarter earnings, 16 have exceeded expectations, or 84%. The historical average is 68%. Pepsi and Delta were two of the companies that reported and exceeded expectations. The expectations are that earnings for the S&P 500 will show 36% year-over-year growth (and so far companies are beating expectations). The 10-year average is 9%.

U.S. SERVICES ECONOMY CONTINUES TO EXPAND: Last week, we reported that the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index reported continued growth but at a slightly slower pace for September. Last week, the ISM reported a similar finding for the services sector of the U.S. economy. The index came in at 54.9 (anything above 50.0 represents growth). That is slightly below last month's reading. It has been above 53.0 for ten straight months, the best stretch since 2022.

INDIA CENTRAL BANK: India's central bank raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years. The rise in energy prices has caused inflation and fears of more. It's benchmark rate is now 5.50%.

ANOTHER WEEK, ANOTHER WEDDING: The third and youngest child of good friends of ours got married last Sunday night. It was a wonderful wedding. I was impressed with how ready these two young people seemed to be for marriage. They have a wonderful story (met at camp), and they will have a wonderful future together. It was a joyful, encouraging event, and it was a privilege to attend.

GRIEF: Unfortunately, while the above wedding was going on, a very good friend of many of us at the wedding was in the hospital surrounded by his family. On Wednesday of last week, John died. This is a tough one. John had recently turned 60. Several couples (including us) had agreed to go to Europe to celebrate his 60th birthday, but the trip had to be postponed because, out of nowhere, he was diagnosed with an aggressive, advanced form of cancer, to which, despite a valiant fight, he succumbed. If ever there was a friend that I took for granted, John was that guy. I have known him for about 35 years. He was an entrepreneur and landscaper who grew up in New Jersey, went to the University of Delaware, and married Deb, the love of his life (she was from Minnesota). John is a bear of a man, one of the few people who made me feel physically small when he would embrace me (you had no choice with John; you were getting that hug). I first met him way back when because he started going to the same Lutheran Church that I attended. I watched as he and Deb had two beautiful children. Eventually, John decided he wanted to go deeper with his faith, and so he got a seminary degree at a local seminary, and he eventually became a full-time worker at our church, spending much of his time with the youth. Three of those youth turned out to be my children. I watched as all three of my children developed a close relationship with John. John did not let go of these relationships after my children graduated and moved on. He kept up with them for one reason: he loved them (and they loved him back). As those relationships continued, my wife (also Deb) and John and his Deb spent more time together, and our relationship grew closer. When my daughter got married, she and her now-husband asked if John would officiate, something he had never done. He jumped in with both feet and did a fabulous job. All of my children and my wife are devastated. John was the type of guy that you could spend an hour talking about sports ("go birds"), but on a dime he felt just as comfortable talking about much deeper topics like the meaning of life, faith, purposeful relationships, etc. He proactively reached out to me from time to time, just because. Last April, he sent me a text that said, "Watching Scot Van Pelt teeing up the Masters. Can't stop thinking about you my friend - weird." (We had this running gag that I looked just like Scott Van Pelt.) He rarely failed to send me a text on my birthday or Father's Day, or just randomly. I thought John would always be there. Our last words were perfect: "Love ya, buddy." "I love you too, John."

Have a great week!

Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.

Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545

dmacgray@stonecropadvisors.com

"The anchor in our world today is freedom, holding us steady in times of change, a symbol of hope to all the world." George H.W. Bush*

"And do not forget to do good and to share with others." Hebrews 13:16 (NIV)

*In commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the United States, I am finding a quote from a president each week, in order. This is the 41st week, and George H.W. Bush was our 41st president.

SOURCES:

A BETTER WEEK: https://myweeklystock.substack.com/p/weekly-market-recap-oct-5-9-bulls?publication_id=697043&post_id=219324630&isFreemail=true&r=s86er&triedRedirect=true

THIRD QUARTER EARNINGS REPORTS BEGIN: https://myweeklystock.substack.com/p/weekly-market-recap-oct-5-9-bulls?publication_id=697043&post_id=219324630&isFreemail=true&r=s86er&triedRedirect=true

U.S. SERVICES ECONOMY CONTINUES TO EXPAND: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/10/5/the-ism-non-manufacturing-index-declined-to-54.9-in-september

JOBLESS CLAIMS FALLING: https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/u-s-jobless-claims-slide-yet-again-2d927e44?mod=Searchresults&pos=1&page=1

INDIA CENTRAL BANK: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/indias-central-bank-raises-rates-for-first-time-since-2023-1466a08a?mod=economy_more_article_pos1

RECENT U.S. GDP DATA: Factset.com

© 2026 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The information contained herein has been compiled from third-party sources (see above) and is believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy is not guaranteed. This newsletter is not an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell securities, and you should not construe it as investment, tax, or legal advice, or a specific investment recommendation. Any opinion included in this newsletter is our judgment as of the date of this report and is subject to change without notice.

If you want any additional information regarding Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, including management fees and expenses, you can contact us directly or review our Form ADV Part 2, which can be found here (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov), or which we will be happy to provide to you upon request. Only God knows the future, and so while past performance can be helpful information, it is not a guarantee of future performance, which could be completely different.

SDG