Troubling Jobs Data and Heroes

September 7, 2025

NOT MANY NEW JOBS: In August, the U.S. economy added 22,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is now 4.3% (was 4.2% last month). In addition, payroll figures for June and July was revised down by a total of 21,000 jobs. That means that June was now a negative month, the first since 2020. Strict enforcement of immigration laws and uncertainty around trade policy are likely affecting these numbers. The household survey indicates that foreign-born employment has decreased by about 1.0 million since January. "Slowing but still growing" remains the theme of this labor market, but these numbers need to reverse a bit for that theme to hold.

SHORT WEEK ENDS ON A DOWN NOTE: Despite a slightly positive week, the S&P 500 and stocks in general ended the week negative as investors absorbed the weak jobs report (see above). Money poured into bonds as confidence grew in a Fed rate cut later this month. Bonds rallied. Until the labor report, stocks were climbing in anticipation of a rate cut, but the jobs report was a bit too weak, and investors began to sell. Now investors are going to be buying and selling based on whether they believe the economy is slowing a bit too fast. Once again, small company stocks (as measured by the Russell 2000) grew faster than the large, rising over 1.0% on the week.

LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.

HEAVY TRUCK SALES DECLINING: According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, sales of heavy trucks in the U.S. were down in August by 4.7% compared to July. Sales are down 8.4% year to date, and August's sales were 15.7% less than August of 2024.

...BUT LIGHT VEHICLE SALES STILL HEALTHY: According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, sales of light vehicles in August were up 6.2% compared to August of last year.

RENT IS GETTING CHEAPER: According to Apartment List, the national median rent in August decreased by 0.2% to $1,400. According to Realtor.com, U.S. median rents in July saw a year-over-year decline for the 24th consecutive month. Rent for 0-2 bedroom apartments across the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas decreased by 2.5% compared with the previous year.

THE SERVICES SECTOR OF THE U.S. ECONOMY GREW LAST MONTH: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) keeps an index on the health of the services sector of the U.S. economy. Any score above 50 indicates growth. The August reading was 52, higher than expected and the highest reading in six months. The index had been on a downward streak for most of the year. Growth in August was broad-based, with twelve out of eighteen sectors reporting growth and despite the growth, hiring contracted as these companies are being cautious.

THE U.S. MANUFACTURING SECTOR CONTRACTED AGAIN LAST MONTH: According to ISM's manufacturing index, activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month, registering a 48.7 score. That score is higher than the previous month. This index registered negative for all of 2023 and 2024, briefly rose in January and February of this year, but has gone back into negative territory since.

HEROES: Over the last few days, I had the opportunity to meet some heroes in Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. First, meet Guillermo and Evelyn, a husband and wife team. They observed that many adults in the area were illiterate, and their children had no good school options available. They used their own money to lease a building and start a Christian school, ages 3-11, for tuition that amounts to about $20-$25 per month. Evelyn showed us around, introduced us to the teachers and the students. We heard lessons being taught in math and reading, etc. Guillermo was building a cafeteria and was so excited to show it to us. They have an ambitious vision for growing the school. Saying this is a labor of love is an understatement. Helping support an organization that helps this little venture succeed is rewarding.

We also visited a school started by a woman named Getrudis de Jesus. In 1977, she was working three jobs during the day and going to school at night with the ambition of becoming a doctor. A set of parents in the neighborhood asked, and then begged, her to tutor their two children. She reluctantly relented and began tutoring them at a park bench in the neighborhood, a very tough neighborhood. When people saw what she was doing, demand immediately picked up, and she was tutoring many, and eventually, they needed a room. Eventually, she gave up on the idea of becoming a doctor as she saw the need in the community for a school was so acute. She now presides over a school of 340 children. Upon entering through the iron gate while being approached by drugged-up beggars, we walked into a kind of paradise. Three floors surrounding a small courtyard. She had an army of teachers as passionate about the mission as she was. Truly inspiring.

Have a great week!

Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.

Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

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dmacgray@stonecropadvisors.com

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SOURCES:

NOT MANY NEW JOBS: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

HEAVY TRUCK SALES DECLINING: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/heavy-truck-sales-decreased-16-yoy-in.html

RENT IS GETTING CHEAPER: https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-rents-mostly-unchanged-year-1a2

...BUT LIGHT VEHICLE SALES STILL HEALTHY: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/light-vehicles-sales-decreased-to-1607.html

THE SERVICES SECTOR OF THE U.S. ECONOMY GREW LAST MONTH: https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/blogs/economics/index.aspx

THE U.S. MANUFACTURING SECTOR CONTRACTED AGAIN LAST MONTH: https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/blogs/economics/index.aspx

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SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.