top of page

Nervous Investors, Changing Retirement Plan Limits, 101, and Big Papi Beats Grandson!

  • Writer: Doug MacGray
    Doug MacGray
  • 5 days ago
  • 5 min read

November 16, 2025


SHUTDOWN DRAMA BEGINS TO END FOR NOW: On Wednesday, President Trump signed legislation to reopen the government, ending the 43-day shutdown. The U.S. government has authorization to fund operations until late January. That's right, we could see a repeat in two months, and investors are already wary of that possibility.


TOPSY TURVY: On Monday, stocks rose on reports that Congress was closing in on a deal to reopen the government. On Tuesday and Wednesday, stocks moved around a bit, but did little in either direction. On Thursday, a small dose of panic seemed to set in. Worries set in about delayed economic data, which could go either way, and stock valuations are running high. Some investors decided to pull some money off the table, and stocks sank decisively. On Friday, some "buy the dip" investors seemed to bring the market back to equilibrium. It should be noted that while the broader market was essentially breakeven with all the ups and downs (S&P 500 up 0.12%), small stocks were decisively negative (Russell 2000 down 1.83%), and the NASDAQ was not able to get back in the black, decreasing by 0.45% for the week. This coming week, Nvidia and Walmart will report third-quarter earnings, and government reports will likely resume.


ree

LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.

ree

MISSING ECONOMIC REPORTS: The Producer Price Index, retail sales, unemployment, and Consumer Price Index are among the data reports we have not been getting. Presumably, we will begin seeing these reports after maneuvering in the fog for a bit. The big worry (see quote below about avoiding worry) is that these reports will now come out fast and furious, and if they do not at least meet expectations, it could cause some negative volatility in the markets. While some reports will still be delayed, this coming week, we should get the September employment report and the initial weekly unemployment claims report. It is possible that we will never see the October reports since no one was actively gathering the data.


HOUSEHOLD DEBT: Total household debt in the U.S. increased last quarter by 1.1% to $18.59 trillion. Mortgage balances make up 70%, or $13.07 trillion. 92.6% of current mortgages are fixed-rate with an average rate of 4.3%. Delinquency ticked higher. 4.4% of all household debt is in some stage of delinquency. Most new delinquency is coming from the student loan sector. 14.4% of student loan debt is currently delinquent, up from 13.0% in the prior quarter. Most other debt categories remained stable. The age group struggling the most with student loan debt is the 50-and-older age group. The serious delinquency rate (90 days or more overdue) for this age group currently stands at 19.9%, the highest mark on record.


MORE AVAILABLE HOMES: There are currently 12.8% more homes on the market in the U.S. than there were one year ago, according to Realtor.com. More homes are coming on the market, and they are taking longer to sell. With more homes on the market, you would think prices would remain stable or come down a bit. The median price for a new listing on the market is currently 1.0% lower than one year ago.


RETIREMENT PLAN CONTRIBUTION LIMITS SET TO INCREASE: In 2026, U.S. workers will be able to put up to $24,500 into their 401 (k) accounts (and 403bs), a $1,000 increase. For IRAs, the annual limit will increase by $500 to $7,500. For those 50 and older, workers can contribute an extra $8,000 as a catch-up contribution in 2026 for a total of $32,500. Those ages 60-63 will be able to contribute up to $35,750. For IRAs, those 50 and older can contribute an additional $1,100 in 2026. Under a new provision, for those who earned more than $150,000 in 2025, the 401(k) catch-up contributions must be sent to an after-tax Roth 401(k) portion of the account. If the 401 (k) plan does not allow for Roth contributions, high earners over 50 will be out of luck. The high earners' provision does not apply to IRAs.

BITCOIN FALLS: Since October 7, Bitcoin's price has fallen 24%. Year to date, it is up 1.97%.

ree

MY INSPIRING CLIENT: I have a wide array of clients in any number of fields and backgrounds, many of whom have accomplished and endured much. I learn from all of them, and it is my privilege to be welcomed into the lives of so many. But this week, I want to focus on the most inspiring client. She will turn 101 years old in a few weeks. She is not just inspiring because she has lived this long. She is inspiring because she is still actively working for the nonprofit organization she co-founded with her husband over forty years ago. This job requires travel! She is planning another trip to the UK in January. She was in Spain in August. She recently sent an email to me (and others) expressing gratitude to "the Lord, for...." among other things, her 61 grandchildren, her long life, for "the Lord watching over my steps, at my age, I never take this for granted." She often sends me encouraging emails in reply to MacGray Matter, for example, a few months ago, she told me, "Doug, as always, thank you for the update. You share it calmly and graciously. I just want to be sure that I have enough money to leave my children when I go to glory. blessings." She is truly extraordinary.


IT WON'T BE LONG: Last weekend, I ran a 5k. One of my competitors was my 8-year-old grandson, Judah. Sorry, Judah. Not today. I beat him, but it really won't be long before he is soundly outpacing me. I'll enjoy my status for now and make him earn it. (I know I'm going to catch some flak for not letting him beat me.)

Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.


ree

Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545




"If you ask what the single most important key to longevity, I would have to say it is avoiding worry, stress, and tension. And if you didn't ask me, I'd still have to say it." George Burns (U.S. comedian, 1896-1996)


"Altogether, Methuselah lived 969 years, and then he died." Genesis 5:27 (NIV)


SOURCES:

MISSING ECONOMIC REPORTS: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

TOPSY TURVY: WSJ.com

(c) 2025 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved

Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it is a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large-cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

Comments

bottom of page