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Last Inflation Report for a While, Soaring Stocks, and Strasbourg

  • Writer: Doug MacGray
    Doug MacGray
  • 1 minute ago
  • 4 min read

October 26, 2025


THE SHUTDOWN WEEK FOUR: It is week four, and little sign of a deal. Both sides are blaming the other, trying to score political points, but markets do not seem to be affected so far. (Wait, that's exactly what I said last week.)


SEPTEMBER INFLATION REPORT: Despite the shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released September's Consumer Price Index. It was delayed by a bit over a week. The data had already been collected, and some BLS staff members were called back to prepare the report so that the 2026 Social Security calculation could be completed (see below). The CPI increased by 0.3% in September, and compared to one year ago, it is up 3.0%. Energy prices led the overall increase, rising 1.5% (gasoline was up 4.1%). Airline prices rose 2.7%. Rents rose 0.1%, the lowest monthly rise in four years. By the way, if the shutdown continues, don't expect to see an October inflation report.


MARKET KEEPS CLIMBING: Despite a lot of noise and some ongoing heartburn from trade and tariff talk, markets rose this past week. Within the S&P 500 sectors, tech led the way , rising 3.1%. The energy sector was up 2.4%. Small-cap stocks in the U.S., as measured by the Russell 2000, were up 2.5% for the week. Corporate earnings drove much of the rally with big names like Procter & Gamble, GE Aerospace, Coca-Cola, IBM, and Intel, among others, beating estimates. Ford Motor was up nearly 16% after reporting that its profit more than doubled in the third quarter. Similarly, IBM was up over 9% after its earnings surprised to the upside. So far, 87% of the 145 S&P 500 companies that have announced third-quarter earnings have beaten estimates. The historical average is 67%. A bunch of tech giants (Meta, Apple, Microsoft, among others), will be reporting earnings this coming week.


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LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.


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THE FED: The Fed will meet this week. Many are expecting an announcement of a 0.25% rate cut on Wednesday.


SOCIAL SECURITY RECIPIENTS GETTING A RAISE: The Social Security Administration announced last week that benefits would increase by 2.8% in 2026. The new maximum amount of earned income subject to Social Security tax will increase to $184,500.

U.S. GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND REVENUE: Since 1950, government revenues have averaged 17.2% of GDP. In 2025, it is estimated that government revenues will come in at about 17.3%, just above the historic average. Over the same period, government spending has averaged 20.0% of GDP, peaking at 30.7% in 2020. For 2025, spending is at about 23.1% of GDP, well above the historic average (20.0%).


WHAT ARE AMERICANS WORRYING ABOUT?: According to a very large survey (60,000 Americans) by Statista Consumer Insights, these are the top ten things Americans are worried about concerning their country:

  1. Rising prices/inflation: (52%)

  2. Crime: (42%)

  3. Economic Situation: (40%)

  4. Health and Social Security:(40%)

  5. Poverty: (37%)

  6. Housing: (36%)

  7. Education: (33%)

  8. Immigration: (31%)

  9. Unemployment: (31%)

  10. Climate Change: (30%)


According to a survey done by Popular Science, these are the top ten things Americans are worried about generally:

  1. Corrupt government officials (69%)

  2. People I love becoming seriously ill (59%)

  3. Economic/Financial Collapse (58%)

  4. Cyber-Terrorism (56%)

  5. People I love dying (55%)

  6. U.S. becoming involved in a world war (55%)

  7. Pollution of drinking water (54%)

  8. Russia using a nuclear weapon (53%)

  9. Pollution of oceans, rivers, and lakes (53%)

  10. Government tracking of personal data (52%)


EUROPEAN TRIP: The week before last, after I ran the marathon that began in Lindau, Germany, my wife and I stayed in Strasbourg and Colmar, in the Alsace region of France, before flying back home from Zurich. When I was 20 years old, I took my first plane ride. I was in a choir that toured England for a month, and then I spent two more months as part of my college's European Seminar class. I visited nine countries that summer. Then, in the next few years, due to being called to serve Liebenzell Missions as a high school teacher in the South Pacific, I traveled to the other side of the world and visited a bunch more countries. One of my goals in the past decade has been to show my wife some of my favorite places from those trips, and I am getting pretty close to showing her all of them (four left, but she'll never go to two of them). When I was 24, on my way back from the South Pacific, I studied in Strasbourg, France, for a month under a professor and lawyer named John Warwick Montgomery, where we delved into international law, human rights, and apologetics.


The building on the right is where I studied back in the 1980s.


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Strasbourg


Riquewihr and Colmar France



Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.



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Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545




"A man sees in the world what he carries in his heart." Johann Wolfgang von Goethe


"Those who are at ease have contempt for misfortune." Job 12:5


SOURCES:

MARKET KEEPS CLIMBING: https://myweeklystock.substack.com/p/weekly-market-recap-oct-20-24-markets?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=697043&post_id=176849287&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=s86er&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email AND https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/s-p-500-climbs-to-new-record-on-strong-earnings-0be1c68f?mod=stocks_news_article_pos3

SOCIALSECURITY RECIPIENTS GETTING A RAISE: https://www.ssa.gov/news/en/press/releases/2025-10-24.html

WHAT ARE AMERICANS WORRYING ABOUT?: https://www.statista.com/chart/35340/respondents-rank-issues-united-states/ AND https://www.popsci.com/health/biggest-fears-2025/


(c) 2025 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved

Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it is a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large-cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

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