Heavy News, Light Inflation, and Remembering Good Vibrations

June 15, 2025

BIG, MOSTLY BAD, NEWS WEEK: The week before last, the big news was a public feud between the President of the United States and the richest man in the world. All of a sudden that story seems very small. Last week the news just kept coming, L.A. riots, Russia air strikes on Kyiv, potential U.S./China trade deal, plane crash in India, Israel bombs Iran, shootings in Minnesota, etc. Political and geopolitical events move markets, at least temporarily, and so we have to pay close attention. But if you have a financial plan and an investment portfolio, always remember that there will be unpredictable events in the future, both political and economic. We can't control or predict these events. Have a plan in place that allows you to wake up in the morning with unsettling world news events, and still feel secure and at peace about your personal finances and goals. We can expect the unexpected and the surprising. I abhor war and violence and suffering, but it is part of the world we live in, and part of the world we all want to improve. I woke up on Friday morning and prayed for peace, for quick resolutions, for cooler heads, for protection of civilians, and for a better future. And then I got to work.

CONSUMER INFLATION MOVES LITTLE: Last month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% after rising 0.2% in April. Over the last 12 months, the CPI has increased by 2.4%. This is up a little from last month when it was 2.3%. The so-called "core" CPI (that excludes food and energy) rose 0.1%. The 12-month reading stayed the same for core CPI at 2.8%. There have been fears of greater inflation due to tariffs, but that has not yet appeared in the data. Gasoline prices decreased by 2.6% last month. Over the last three months, the annualized rate of inflation has been 1.0%. According to eggprices.org, egg prices topped off at $8.17 a dozen in March but are now back down to $2.66 a dozen.

PRODUCER-LEVEL INFLATION REMAINS TAME: The Producer Price Index (PPI), measures prices at wholesale levels. The PPI rose 0.1% in May after decreasing by 0.2% the month before.

ORACLE: Oracle was one of the last companies to report first quarter earnings. It reported earnings two times greater than consensus predictions, and its stock increased nearly 24% last week.

MIDDLE EAST FIGHTING BRINGS DOWN STOCKS: U.S. stocks were poised for a positive week until Israel attacked Iran, and markets pulled back. The possibility of disruption of world energy supplies caused jitters as oil prices rose and stock prices sank. Prices for gold, the U.S. dollar, and oil all rose causing further concern that inflation will result and interest rates will remain higher for longer. Prior to the onset of the conflict, stock prices were rising on good news coming from the U.S./China trade negotiations and May's inflation data (see above).

LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.

COMING ATTRACTIONS: The Fed will meet this coming week. In light of the Middle East events, any chance of the Fed surprising us with a rate cut seems gone now. May's retail sales report will also be released on Tuesday. Of course, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East may crowd out most other news.

HERE COMES NUCLEAR: According to a Goldman Sachs analysis, by 2040, global nuclear generating capacity will rise from 378 gigawatts to 575 gigawatts, and its share of the global electricity mix will increase from 9% to 12%. There has been a surge in support for nuclear power worldwide and a spike in investment in nuclear power facilities. Over 400 new reactors are in the planning or proposal stages on top of the roughly sixty currently under construction. China alone plans on building 150 new nuclear reactors by 2035. In the 1980s, nuclear power's share of total electricity generation peaked at 17%.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY ARMY!: My colleague, and one of Stonecrop's talented advisors, Jess Chominski is a twenty-year Army veteran and a current member of the U.S. Army reserve. She has not let us forget that this weekend marks the 250th birthday of the U.S. Army. In 1775, we needed something a bit more professional than the local Minuteman militias in Massachusetts, and elsewhere, to fight the British, and so the Army was created. Over 250 years the U.S. Army has continuously served our country, keeping us safe and secure, and always working to secure another generation of prosperity. Happy Birthday Army!

REMINISCING: Endless Summer by the Beach Boys was one of the first albums I remember my older brother buying. We listened to that thing over and over. It came with a poster showing two biplanes flying over the beach pulling two signs that said, "Endless Summer" and "Beach Boys." That poster hung over my brother's bed for a while. With news of Brian Wilson's death last week, I had to listen to the album from the first song to the last (the way we used to, except I didn't have to flip the album). It is a great album. I recommend copying me, especially if you plan on going to the beach soon.

Have a great week!

Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.

Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545

dmacgray@stonecropadvisors.com

"I've never written one note or word of music simply because I think it will make money." Brian Wilson (1943-2025)

"Man is a mere phantom as he goes to and fro: he bustles about, but only in vain; he heaps up wealth not knowing who will get it." Psalm 39:6 (NIV)

SOURCES:

INFLATION MOVES LITTLE: https://eggprices.org/national-data AND https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

ORACLE: https://myweeklystock.substack.com/p/weekly-market-recap-jun-9-13-headline?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=s86er&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

PRODUCER-LEVEL INFLATION REMAINS TAME: https://myweeklystock.substack.com/p/weekly-market-recap-jun-9-13-headline?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=s86er&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

HERE COMES NUCLEAR: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/is-nuclear-power-set-for-a-revival

(c) 2025 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved

Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.