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Bad Thursday, Good Friday

  • Writer: Doug MacGray
    Doug MacGray
  • Apr 20
  • 4 min read

April 20, 2025


HOLIDAY-SHORTENED WEEK ENDS NEGATIVE: The U.S. had only four days of trading as the markets closed to observe Good Friday. The week ended negative as tariff and trade developments continued to dominate the news. It did not help that Fed Chairman Powell publicly stated that the Fed is waiting for more data as its outlook has become decidedly more uncertain, and that a rate cut is not imminent. "Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation." Overall economic data has not changed much, but every piece of economic news now comes with the caveat, "but the tariffs." Currently, we are hearing lots of anecdotal information about companies getting prepared for impact, and some even beginning to see some impact. The biggest impact so far has been subjective, i.e., consumer confidence, but of course, the subjective feelings of all those spending units drives the economy.



LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.



LET'S MAKE A DEAL: Trade deals take time. So far, there have been meetings and a lot of talk, but no deals, which is not a surprise. U.S. Treasury Secretary and his South Korean counterpart are meeting next week. There have been some communications with China, but nothing remotely concrete, and yet President Trump said last week, "I would think over the next three or four weeks, I think maybe the whole thing could be concluded." Japan and the U.S. are talking, and there have been some early positive signs in discussions with Europe which has announced it is holding off on any retaliatory action until July 14 to allow time for negotiations. The market will be on pins and needles waiting for signs that these deals are actually going to happen.


RETAIL SALES UP: U.S. retail sales increased by 1.4% in March, and sales were 4.6% higher than one year ago.


HOUSING STARTS DECLINE: Unusually cold weather and the California fires slowed homebuilding in January. New home building bounced back dramatically in February. March's data indicates the housing starts dropped by 11.4% at a level even lower than January's disappointing number. High home prices and mortgages have been a challenge for a while, but now the unpredictable impact of new tariffs comes into play. Single-family homes declined by 14.2%. The total number of new homes under construction has generally lagged population growth since 2007.


WEEKLY UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS HOLDING STEADY: With all the talk of economic disruption, we watch the weekly initial claims for unemployment closely. You would think this will begin to tick up at some point. So far it is not. In the week ending April 12, 215,000 initial claims were filed, a decrease from the prior week. The 4-week moving average is also down a bit to 220,750.



U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DOWN A BIT IN MARCH: Industrial production in the U.S. decreased by 0.3% in March mostly led by utilities that dropped 5.8% largely due to warming weather. Manufacturing and mining increased 0.3% and 0.6% respectively. For the first quarter of 2025, industrial production was up at an annual rate of 5.5%.



GOLD: In 1980, the real gold price per ounce in U.S. Dollars reached $837. It dropped shortly thereafter, eventually bottoming out at about $150 around the turn of the century. Finally, 44 years after hitting that high, it hit it again in September of last year. It is now $886.44.



OUR CHANGING POPULATION: Below is a graph of the current U.S. population by age groups as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. When looked at in five-year cohorts, the largest current cohort is the 30-34 year-olds. Right behind them is the 35-39 year-old age group. In 2010, the boomers dominated the largest two age cohorts, but the Millennials are taking over. Sadly, the 0-5, 5-9 age cohorts have fallen out of the top ten. They were both in the top ten in 2010.



DON'T BE ANNOYED: I snapped this at a red light recently. Interesting vanity plate.



A tip: Be content, not annoyed.


SWEET VIOLET: My family makes some cute babies!



Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.



Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545



"Stand your ground. Do not fire unless you are fired upon, but if they mean war, let it begin here." Captain John Parker, Lexington Militia, April 19, 1775, 250 years ago


"Why are you troubled, and why do doubts rise in your minds?" Luke 24:38 (NIV)


SOURCES:

HOLIDAY-SHORTENED WEEK ENDS NEGATIVE: https://pro.thestreet.com/portfolio/weekly-roundup-bracing-for-the-march-quarter-earnings-deluge AND https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250416a.htm

WEEKLY UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS HOLDING STEADY: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DOWN A BIT IN MARCH; https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm


(c) 2025 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved


Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

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