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Back in Black, 13.1, and Number 6

  • Writer: Doug MacGray
    Doug MacGray
  • Mar 23
  • 4 min read

March 23, 2025


NO SURPRISE, THE FED LEAVES INTEREST RATES ALONE: The Federal Reserve met last week, and, to no one's surprise, kept interest rates the same. In its statement, the Fed said, "Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased." Although it did not reduce rates, it did state that it will "continue reducing its holdings in Treasury securities and agency debt...." But it will do this at a slower pace, meaning continued tightening, but at a slower pace. Caution seemed to be the theme. Future decisions will "take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments." Fed Chairman Powell opined that the impacts of tariffs would likely not be permanent. The Fed is currently projecting annual growth in the economy of 1.7% this year.


DIVERSIFICATION: If you put all your money in the S&P 500 for the last couple of years, or even the largest stocks in that index, you'd have done great. If you were diversified with smaller sized company stocks and international stocks and bonds, you did not do nearly as well as the S&P 500. As a result, much focus remains on the S&P 500 which is negative so far this year (see below). If you are diversified, take a look at your portfolio. It may not be as bad as you think. Bonds and international stocks are up so far this year. The FTSE Global All Cap Stock Index is up 0.39%.


BACK IN BLACK: It has been a while since we saw the weekly outcome of the S&P 500 in the black, but that is what we got last week. On balance, investors seemed encouraged by the Fed statement and announced actions, but ongoing uncertainty jitters around tariffs, inflation and economic growth kept any rally at bay. Smaller companies outperformed larger companies, and value stocks outperformed growth stocks.



LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.



U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP: In February, U.S. industrial production (mining, manufacturing and utilities) rose for the third straight month, this time by 0.7%. This sector is dealing with the conflicting inputs of an easier regulatory environment and the uncertainty around tariffs. Manufacturing gained 0.9% in February with auto manufacturing jumping 8.5% for the month. Non-auto manufacturing increased by 0.3%. Non-auto manufacturing has grown by an annualized rate of 6.2% in the past three months.


U.S. RETAIL SALES UP: Retail sales in February were up 0.2% from the prior month, and up 3.1% from February of a year ago. If you take inflation into account, retail sales are up by a mere 0.3% for the year, and still down from early 2021 when the inflationary spiral began.


U.S. HOME SALES UP: Sales of existing homes in the U.S. increased by 4.2% in February, selling at an annual pace of 4.26 million. Before the COVID shutdowns, the pace of sales was approximately 5.25 million. The anticipated assist to the housing market of lower mortgage rates has not yet materialized despite the Fed lowering rates a bit. Affordability remains a problem.


WORLD'S FASTEST GROWING ECONOMIES: According to the IMF, the five fastest growing economies in the world might surprise you. Here they are:

  1. South Sudan - 27.2%

  2. Guyana - 14.4%

  3. Libya - 13.7%

  4. Senegal - 9.3%

  5. Palau - 8.5%.


We have clients from two of these countries.


THIRTEEN POINT ONE: On Saturday, my son Riley and I ran the First State Half Marathon. He, of course, beat me, but we both finished. The iconic Deer Park Tavern in Newark, Delaware held the after-race celebrations, and my son and I hung out on the deck for a bit. You always feel significantly better when it is over. It was a beautiful day for a long run.


THIS GOOD: A couple of weeks ago, I was sitting with my ski buddies in Colorado, and one of them asked me some questions about my childhood. He said he didn't really know anything about that part of my life. As I was describing my childhood, without thinking, I spontaneously said, "you know, back then, I never thought that at this point in my life I would have it this good." The "good" just got better, because this week, my daughter gave birth to her second child, Violet. What a beautiful name, and what a beautiful little girl. At a little over six pounds, she is the smallest baby I have ever held, and what a gift!



Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.



Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545



"Its very important that people know that I really enjoy everything that has happened to me. And I tell my kids...you're not going to be the tallest, fastest, prettiest, the best track runner, but you can be the nicest human being that someone has ever met in their life. And I just want to leave that legacy that being nice is a true treasure." George Foreman


"So, in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you." Matthew 7:12 (NIV)


SOURCES:


(c) 2025 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved


Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

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