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Shutdown, Tech Stocks Slide, Slight Employment Gains, Power Rangers and Paw Patrol

  • Writer: Doug MacGray
    Doug MacGray
  • Nov 9
  • 5 min read

November 9, 2025


SHUTDOWN DRAMA CONTINUES: Some government benefit programs and airline travel are being affected by the U.S. government shutdown, which will make the noise and anger intensify. Again, market impact has been muted but it is no longer negligible, as it may have been one of the factors leading to this week's pullback (see below). Other effects are beginning to get substantial, and sour citizens often turn into sour investors. 1.4 million federal employees are on unpaid leave or are working for no pay. And now, 10% of flights at 40 major U.S. airports have been cut. Another effect is this: We have no October employment report, and no weekly unemployment claims report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.


TOUGH WEEK FOR STOCKS: As we all know, the tech sector is the primary driver for overall S&P 500 performance, and last week, tech was the worst-performing sector, down 4.2%. For the week, stocks in the energy (1.6%), health care (1.3%), real estate (0.9%), and financials (0.8%) were all up, but tech and communications services companies (-2.4%) dragged the overall markets down. For the tech sector, it has been riding a wave of confidence in AI investment and earnings. Occasionally, during rallies like this, investors begin to get wary that perhaps things have gone a bit too far, and they reel it in. This seems to be the sentiment that caused the tech stocks to pull back last week. There remains significant uncertainty regarding tariffs, the sustainability of AI valuations, the Federal Reserve, and the government shutdown. Friday showed a glimpse of positivity as markets started negatively, stabilized, and ended up for the day.


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LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.

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U.S SERVICES SECTOR STILL PERFORMING WELL: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) maintains two closely watched indices in the manufacturing and services sector of the U.S. economy. Services make up about two-thirds of U.S. output. Last week, the ISM Services index for October rose to an eight-month high of 52.4 (anything above 50 indicates growth). The manufacturing index has been showing persistent weakness, but the services sector is showing continuing strength, expanding in ten of the last twelve months. Last month, new orders accelerated at the fastest pace in a year. Hiring in the services sector is not showing growth, decreasing in seven of the past eight months.


U.S. MANUFACTURING STRUGGLES: The ISM Manufacturing Index for October showed a decrease, falling to 48.7. That is eight months in a row of declines in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy, according to this source, and continuing a pattern that has persisted since the beginning of 2023 (despite a positive blip for two months earlier this year).

ADP PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT REPORT SHOWS GAINS: We did not get the government employment report, but we are still getting the ADP National Employment Report on private sector employment. According to that report, 42,000 jobs were added in October. Pay was 4.5% higher on average for employees compared with one year ago.


WHERE ARE THE HARD WORKERS?: The average number of hours a person works is 38.7, according to an analysis done by Visual Capitalist. The country where the average worker works the most hours is Bhutan, at 54.5 hours per week. The average in the U.S. is 36.1 hours. In Germany, Sweden, Finland, Austria, Norway, and the Netherlands, it is less than 30. The U.K., France, Spain, and Japan come in at about 31 each. China is 44.8. Canada is 32.3.

ALWAYS, ALWAYS GET AN OBJECTIVE OPINION ON INSURANCE/ANNUITY PRODUCTS: Kyle Busch is a very successful NASCAR driver. He has an estimated net worth of $80 million. Certainly, he can afford to pay objective advisors to help him make financial decisions. These objective advisors can be attorneys, accountants, or fee-only financial advisors. Several years ago, he and his wife Samantha agreed to purchase an Indexed Universal Life Insurance policy, which has a death benefit and a cash value component. Kyle claims that he was told that if he paid a million dollars a year for five years, he would be able to take out $800,000 per year once he turned 52 (he is currently 40). After paying into the policy for five years, Kyle got a notice for the premium in the sixth year. Kyle said, "I was like, wait a second, what am I getting a sixth-year premium payment for? We got on a call with the guy who sold me the premium policies, and he ran me around in all these circles, couldn't answer the questions, so I was like, this is fishy." Kyle and Samantha then went to an independent advisor (they should have started there!,) who told them that this policy was going to expire in 16 months and all the money they had invested would be gone. Moreover, the policy paid the agent an up-front 35% commission, about which Kyle was unaware. Kyle and Samantha are suing the insurance company and the agent, and now their attorney is trying to find other people in similar circumstances.


I know a few life insurance agents who are top-notch and who can be trusted implicitly. Those agents would agree with this advice: Always have an objective advisor review the proposed policy. These policies are confusing, even to me, and so I have to dig and sometimes and/or get outside assistance to help me discover all the ins and outs of the product. Often, I will simply ask the agent to explain it to me. I am a licensed attorney and a credentialed financial planner with decades of experience. If they can't make it understandable to me, there is a real problem. In addition, always ask the agent how they are being compensated. Had Kyle and Samantha done this, I doubt they would have purchased this policy. There may have been a product that fit their needs, but this was not it. Fortunately, if wrongdoing did occur (these are all just allegations at this point), they have the financial wherewithal to pursue a claim. Not all of us do, so be prudent.

HALLOWEEN PICS: My six grandchildren had great Halloween outfits. Power Rangers and Paw Patrol!



Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.



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Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545




"True heroism is remarkably sober, very undramatic. It is not the urge to surpass all others at whatever cost, but the urge to serve others at whatever cost." Arthur Ashe


"For lack of guidance, a nation falls, but many advisors make victory sure." Proverbs 11:14


SOURCES:

ALWAYS, ALWAYS GET AN OBJECTIVE OPINION ON INSURANCE/ANNUITY PRODUCTS: https://moneyinc.com/richest-nascar-drivers/ AND https://apnews.com/article/nascar-kyle-bush-lawsuit-9100697e9ece4c91f298ead9b2a6d7fb

TOUGH WEEK FOR STOCKS: https://myweeklystock.substack.com/p/weekly-market-recap-nov-3-7 AND https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-markets-show-signs-of-stabilization-after-tech-selloff-94713e56?mod=stocks_news_article_pos5

(c) 2025 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved

Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


SDG

*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it is a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large-cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

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