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Oil Down and Stocks Up Again, Loneliness and Alcatraz

  • Writer: Doug MacGray
    Doug MacGray
  • May 31
  • 4 min read

May 31, 2026


OIL PRICES FALL BELOW $100 AND GAS PRICES BUDGE: The Brent Crude Oil Wholesale Spot price continued to decrease, ending the week at about $95 per barrel. Gasoline prices have not moved as decisively, but they have come down. On May 20, the average price for regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.56. It is now $4.39. Summer driving season tends to push demand, and thus prices, up, and global oil supplies remain vulnerable. Even if (a big 'if') the Iran war winds down, it may take some time to see substantial relief at the pump.



WAR OPTIMISM LEADS TO STRONG WEEK IN STOCK MARKETS: As news spread that the negotiations for a peace deal in Iran were productive, oil prices fell, and stock prices rose. Overall, markets are being fueled by corporate earnings, both past, and projected. According to an analysis done by FactSet, year-over-year earnings for S&P 500 companies is 28.6%. Artificial intelligence advances have been the primary driver. Dell was up 42.6%, Super Micro Computer was up 29.5%, and Micron Technology was up 29.3%. The NASDAQ was up 2.4% for the shortened week.


LONGER-TERM PERFORMANCE: Below are the annualized three-year and five-year numbers for these same indices.



SPENDING RISING FASTER THAN INCOME: Personal income in the U.S. was unchanged in April, but spending increased by 0.5%. In the past year, personal income is up 2.5%, and spending is up 5.9%. Consumer prices, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), rose 0.4% in April and are up 3.8% over the past year. If you exclude food and energy, the "Core CPE" is up 3.3% year-over-year. Much of the increase in spending last month was for gasoline and other energy goods. The personal savings rates dips when spending increases faster than income, and that rate is now down to 2.6%.


DURABLE GOODS: Orders for durable goods rose again in April, rising 7.9%. Transportation was the primary reason for the jump, but even without transportation, durable goods orders rose 1.1% for the month. Orders excluding transportation (which is a volatile category) have risen 9.1% in the last year. Orders for fabricated metal products, machinery, and computers and electronic products have each risen by double-digits in the past year. Factories are not keeping up. Unfilled orders are up 11.5% in the past year.


SUPPLY OF MONEY: It stands to reason that if the government prints more money, then prices will go up. More money chasing the same goods leads to inflation. The supply of money in the U.S (as measured by the M2 index) has risen by 4.44% in the past year (see below). The long-term average (since the 1960s) for M2 growth has been 6.54%.


CANADIAN ECONOMY SLOWS: For the second quarter in a row, Canada's economy shrank. The economy decreased by 0.1% in the first quarter after falling 1.0% in the prior quarter. Canada's economy has contracted in three of the last five quarters.


U.S. HOME PRICES: According to the S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, home prices in the U.S. rose by 0.7% over the past twelve months. That is the 10th consecutive month that home prices have been less than the general inflation rate.


ALONE TIME: I often hear people say, "I need some alone time." Time spent away from social media and away from noise, alone, can be quite valuable. But as you can see below, as people age in the United States, alone time becomes a way of life. The average 80-year-old spends about eight hours a day alone.


ALCATRAZ: My trip last week ended up in San Francisco. We decided to go to Alcatraz, and I am glad we did. It was fascinating. As you all know, Alcatraz is essentially one big rock jutting out of San Francisco Bay. We saw the prison, the conditions in which they lived, and heard the stories of Al Capone, Machine Gun Kelly, and the many escape attempts. A surprising observation was that "The Rock" is covered with stonecrops! If you want to find something that can prosper while clinging to a stone, you go to Stonecrop!



Have a great week!


Our purpose is to honor God by helping our clients see the objective, find the path, and navigate past the obstacles to a more prosperous future.



Douglas R. MacGray, J.D., C.F.P. ®

President

Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC

Direct | Cell | Fax

(610) 628 4545




"Lost time is never found again." Benjamin Franklin


"A truly American sentiment recognizes the dignity of labor and the fact that honor lies in honest toil." Grover Cleveland*


"Now listen, you who say, 'Today or tomorrow we will go to this or that city, spend a year there, carry on business and make money.' Why, you do not even know what will happen tomorrow." James 4:13-14 (NIV)


*In commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the United States, I am finding a quote from a president each week, in order. This is the 22nd week, and Grover Cleveland was our 22nd president.


SOURCES:

WAR OPTIMISM LEADS TO STRONG WEEK IN STOCK MARKETS: https://myweeklystock.substack.com/p/weekly-market-recap-may-26-29-nine AND https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/oil-declines-lift-stocks-to-fresh-records-243d065e?mod=stocks_news_article_pos1


(c) 2026 Anno Domini, Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, All Rights Reserved Investment advisory services offered through Stonecrop Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


SDG


*S&P 500: This is a measure of the performance of the 500 largest companies in the United States, and it a common index to track the performance of U.S. equity markets, especially the large cap markets.

*MSCI All Country World Index X US: This is a broad measure of the performance of worldwide equity markets excluding the United States.

*Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate: This is a measure of the U.S. bond markets.

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